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Old 01-12-2007, 03:10 PM   #4
gl45
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
How an horse with a record of 77 0-1-11 win a race?
As we see from Ted output, never discard any horse, no matter how bad he might look on paper.
Just choosing the first paceline the horse become a contender. How so, because from Ted's words, "Its form was well hidden". That's called trainer intent, in my neck of the woods.
How Qpublic would would send #4 at 9:1 when in the last 10 races finished last in all of them (2 races second to last), and send the #5 horse at 27:1, wich IMO is better horse.
Would I have bet #5? Not to win, but most surely in a combo.
#1 Last 3 races were conditioned. This horse is learning how to distribute his energies. If you look the last 3 lines you can se an improvement in postions tru the pacecalls. He has the highest LP speed rating of the field. Is a contender.
#2 #3 #4 Out
#5 This horse recorded the highest total speed rating of the field. In his last race he jumped 34 points in late speed ratings and 9 points in total speed ratings. The trainer is dropping the horse at lower level and horse is fresh.
Then I look at the past odds and I notice that the horse was send off at 13:1 in his second race back, off a class rise (MC7500). Bingo! The trainer is betting money. Qpublic would never bet this horse off a class rise, no with this kind of record. And today, again the horse was send off at 28:1 (more than 50% from last race). For me it means that the trainer is shooting with this horse. There were other obscurities in this horse's pp that made him a contender.

I'm not going into much details for the #6 or #7. My bets would have been 1-5-6-7 for an Ex box.
Ted, you might want to check race #2 in the same card. See what you come up with. I got tired and I went to bed after race #2. I should have stay up.
Regards,
lbj

P.S.
Your software looks very good, and picks winners as well.

Last edited by gl45; 01-12-2007 at 03:12 PM.
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