Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 05-02-2018, 12:37 PM

Final Contenders

Mendelssohn: Pace 88 103.25= 191.25 + 15.25+ SR 108 81.6+Note: All ratings are my own and are conservative adjustments with no track totrack adjustment on this one. His performance was as good as the older ThunderSnow who won the $ 10,000,000 race on same card. Time Form rating gave ThunderSnow a 123 & Mendelssohn a 122. Every indication indicates this horse is amonster and a freak. He let up the last furlong and the horse was looking atthe infield and not concentrating, so ratings again are much better. I expect he’ll run again with Blinkers on and Lasix again, it should correct his looking around especially with the infield crowd at CD. The Derby not being won by a foreign horse is a misnomer or false fact. First off few have attempted it and the quality of those attempting it are questionable, therefore not really a quantified fact. Few can win multiple Gr 1’s races with million dollar purses like he has. Progressing with upside, actual figures unknown and odds should bedecent

Audible: Pace 105 104= 209 -1. SR 107 88. Shows signs of a great horse, in that he is lazy in training and in his races, only does what is needed. True ability remains unknown with upside. To date has answered all questions while winning 4of 5. Audible has accomplished all this while going up in class, with increasing Speed Ratings and distance increases. He overcame a much faster pacein last with hardly any deceleration, while overcoming competition. Distance should not be a problem. Only additional races will determine his bottom. No knocks and solid contender. Last was best, improving top ability unknown but has upside.

Noble Indy: Pace 109 86 = 195 – 23. SR 100
In last hit gate, bumped start, because of no other speed was forced to change running style to prevent speed getting away,was headed in stretch and came back to win. Obviously a fighter, who can revert to normal running style in this affair, only needs a clean trip as they all do and will be tough in stretch. Line one isn’t really isn’t useable because ofbeing forced to change style which caused high deceleration, and his next to last also not indicative of ability. Sometimes numbers just aren’t reflective of true ability, especially with 3 year olds. His true potential remains unexposed which should deliver good odds on this sleeper. In his maiden win showed great speed and rates, a deadly combination. Races greenly but horses can change dramatically in just a week or so when that light goes off and they put it all together. Comes into it fresh off a 6 week layoff and I would bet that time was spent training to correct antics at gate, get use to blinkers, controlling speed, further preparation for this by a very capable trainer. I believe he’ll be overlooked and odds will be or should be huge on this one. No slouch. A positive unknown factor. I won’t let this oneget away without something on him.

Hofburg: 102 101 = 203 - 1 SR 104 82 Derby not an impossible task, 3yr. olds can improve rapidly as he did in last. Improving SR while up in class and increasing distances. He ran against a greater POR in last, kept pace with winner in but just couldn’t overcome lengths behind. I love that he showed very deceleration at 9 F and kept withthe winner. Derby distance will not be a problem for this one. If remains sound I expect this one to make a name for himself. Few can go from a maiden to runbig in a GR 1, trainer capable and recognizes potential. Plenty of unknown upside and risk reward is there with a stupid 30-1 morning line. Any place inthe money will destroy many exotic bets.

Bold d’ Oro: Pace 102 114 = 216 + 12. SR 110 94 Receives a better match up in this and there should be a more honest pace against Justify in the Derby which will better set up for his stalking style. I will downgrade because he has lost 3 races in a row which Gr. 1 types don’t do.Not sure if it is the horse or the trainers ability to have this horse trained properly and ready in those races. Either way not a good sign so downgraded.

Justify: Pace 105 117 = 222 + 12. SR 114 99 His pace & SR figures along with Bold d’ Oro’s appear unbelievable and I’m skeptical of them of his numbers.It could be the variant, unsure but too good to be factual. Highly unusual at best there would be two freaks like this. A different set up or match up today,has never raced out of Cal. and other than SA. Must prove he can handle shipping, CD track, not bounce and the Apollo curse. I just can’t accept the low risk reward in this and if he can overcome all the questions and win than he’ll just beat me and I’ll give him his just dues. A favorite with 8 legit contenders is just not my cup of tea. Not conducive to making money.

Good Magic: 99 93 = 192 + - 6 SR 98 73 I gave this horse a plus on pace because in his last he really was never challenged and only did whathad to in an easy prep. His real potential as a 3 yr. old is somewhat a mystery at this point. This horse remains an unknown factor as he only did what he had to do in his final prep for this. For his 3 yr. debut in the FntnOYth he had missed training due to a foot problem and then followed up with a win in the Blue Grass. HE won easily without being extended or challenged in stretch.Morning line odds are decent considering 3 yr. old potential is hidden and has upside.He’ll have to improve 10 lengths on his Speed Rating and pace ratings which isn’t impossible but a tall order and must prove he didn’t peak as a 2 year old.

Magnum Moon: Pace 98 98 = 196 0 SR 100 75 Won 4 for 4 and is undefeated. Great horses only due what they have to in order to win. Today will get tested against a much faster pace and has to answer that question. The only race with any serious challenge to him was line 2 which is what I used and with that he will meet his stiffest competition to date. He’s been traveling the B circuit and beating up on weaker foes and gets a much stiffer pace challenge inthis one. At this point I prefer horses whose demonstrated performance is greater. There is much irrational enthusiasm (overhype) due to being undefeated which does not Justify his actual performance. The reward verses risk is not here for his low morning line of probable co-favorite. Somehow at this point its decision time which we must make on the information at hand therefore a downgrade.

Vino Rosso: Pace 102 98 = 200 -4. SR 102 Still runs greenly,with blinkers added and maturity he put it all together in last. He is an unknown factor whose top still is unknown. Hehad two loses at Tampa Bay but Jock and trainer say it was the track however his first time over the track his SR increased, I don’t think their correct andGr 1 horses normally don’t lose back to back races against Gr 3 types. He could become something but may not be ready for this. Risk reward is there with a morning line of ??? I just think he must prove too much with this bunch. While not impossible at this point I prefer a horse that is a lesser unknown withmore proven demonstrated performance.

Horse 1St FR SC 3rd FR Total Decel. SR Mitch Dis. Rat.
Justify 100 105 117= 322 + 12 114 99
Bold d’ Oro 94 102 114 = 310 + 12 110 94
Audible 95 105 104 = 304 - 1 107 88
Noble Indy: 108 109 86 = 303 -26 100 75
Hofburg 96 102 101 = 299 - 1 104 82
Good Magic 86 99 93 = 278 + - 6 98 73
Vino Rosso 90 102 98 = 290 – 4 102 80
Magnum Moon77 98 98 = 273 0 100 75
Mendelssohn Unk. / Competitive 108+ 89+

Another tough 3 year old race with many unknown questions, a pass race that isn’t a prime betting opportunity. But what the hell it is the Derby so look for good risk reward, save the house, bet small and enjoy the race. Look for better ways to use your days betting capital onthe undercard. I suggest passing up on the gimmicks on this feature race, therejust isn’t any defined key horse and too many contenders exist. Therefore I would suggest one stick to win betting with good overlays for your bet or a Daily Double if you get a good race before or after this one, provided they also provide a good price winner. Seek alot for little in this affair and don’t go nuts with it. I went with horses that have upside and decent or possible decent odds for the risk factor this race presents. Good luck.

Final Order of top 4: Mendelssohn # 14 5-1, Audible # 58-1, Noble Indy # 19 30-1, Hofburg # 9 20-1,
Good Magic # 6 12-1, Justify # 73-1, Vino Rosso # 18 12, Bold d’ Oro # 11 8-1
Mitch44

05-02-2018, 12:37 PM	#9
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Final picks for Ky Derby Final Contenders Mendelssohn: Pace 88 103.25= 191.25 + 15.25+ SR 108 81.6+Note: All ratings are my own and are conservative adjustments with no track totrack adjustment on this one. His performance was as good as the older ThunderSnow who won the $ 10,000,000 race on same card. Time Form rating gave ThunderSnow a 123 & Mendelssohn a 122. Every indication indicates this horse is amonster and a freak. He let up the last furlong and the horse was looking atthe infield and not concentrating, so ratings again are much better. I expect he’ll run again with Blinkers on and Lasix again, it should correct his looking around especially with the infield crowd at CD. The Derby not being won by a foreign horse is a misnomer or false fact. First off few have attempted it and the quality of those attempting it are questionable, therefore not really a quantified fact. Few can win multiple Gr 1’s races with million dollar purses like he has. Progressing with upside, actual figures unknown and odds should bedecent Audible: Pace 105 104= 209 -1. SR 107 88. Shows signs of a great horse, in that he is lazy in training and in his races, only does what is needed. True ability remains unknown with upside. To date has answered all questions while winning 4of 5. Audible has accomplished all this while going up in class, with increasing Speed Ratings and distance increases. He overcame a much faster pacein last with hardly any deceleration, while overcoming competition. Distance should not be a problem. Only additional races will determine his bottom. No knocks and solid contender. Last was best, improving top ability unknown but has upside. Noble Indy: Pace 109 86 = 195 – 23. SR 100 In last hit gate, bumped start, because of no other speed was forced to change running style to prevent speed getting away,was headed in stretch and came back to win. Obviously a fighter, who can revert to normal running style in this affair, only needs a clean trip as they all do and will be tough in stretch. Line one isn’t really isn’t useable because ofbeing forced to change style which caused high deceleration, and his next to last also not indicative of ability. Sometimes numbers just aren’t reflective of true ability, especially with 3 year olds. His true potential remains unexposed which should deliver good odds on this sleeper. In his maiden win showed great speed and rates, a deadly combination. Races greenly but horses can change dramatically in just a week or so when that light goes off and they put it all together. Comes into it fresh off a 6 week layoff and I would bet that time was spent training to correct antics at gate, get use to blinkers, controlling speed, further preparation for this by a very capable trainer. I believe he’ll be overlooked and odds will be or should be huge on this one. No slouch. A positive unknown factor. I won’t let this oneget away without something on him. Hofburg: 102 101 = 203 - 1 SR 104 82 Derby not an impossible task, 3yr. olds can improve rapidly as he did in last. Improving SR while up in class and increasing distances. He ran against a greater POR in last, kept pace with winner in but just couldn’t overcome lengths behind. I love that he showed very deceleration at 9 F and kept withthe winner. Derby distance will not be a problem for this one. If remains sound I expect this one to make a name for himself. Few can go from a maiden to runbig in a GR 1, trainer capable and recognizes potential. Plenty of unknown upside and risk reward is there with a stupid 30-1 morning line. Any place inthe money will destroy many exotic bets. Bold d’ Oro: Pace 102 114 = 216 + 12. SR 110 94 Receives a better match up in this and there should be a more honest pace against Justify in the Derby which will better set up for his stalking style. I will downgrade because he has lost 3 races in a row which Gr. 1 types don’t do.Not sure if it is the horse or the trainers ability to have this horse trained properly and ready in those races. Either way not a good sign so downgraded. Justify: Pace 105 117 = 222 + 12. SR 114 99 His pace & SR figures along with Bold d’ Oro’s appear unbelievable and I’m skeptical of them of his numbers.It could be the variant, unsure but too good to be factual. Highly unusual at best there would be two freaks like this. A different set up or match up today,has never raced out of Cal. and other than SA. Must prove he can handle shipping, CD track, not bounce and the Apollo curse. I just can’t accept the low risk reward in this and if he can overcome all the questions and win than he’ll just beat me and I’ll give him his just dues. A favorite with 8 legit contenders is just not my cup of tea. Not conducive to making money. Good Magic: 99 93 = 192 + - 6 SR 98 73 I gave this horse a plus on pace because in his last he really was never challenged and only did whathad to in an easy prep. His real potential as a 3 yr. old is somewhat a mystery at this point. This horse remains an unknown factor as he only did what he had to do in his final prep for this. For his 3 yr. debut in the FntnOYth he had missed training due to a foot problem and then followed up with a win in the Blue Grass. HE won easily without being extended or challenged in stretch.Morning line odds are decent considering 3 yr. old potential is hidden and has upside.He’ll have to improve 10 lengths on his Speed Rating and pace ratings which isn’t impossible but a tall order and must prove he didn’t peak as a 2 year old. Magnum Moon: Pace 98 98 = 196 0 SR 100 75 Won 4 for 4 and is undefeated. Great horses only due what they have to in order to win. Today will get tested against a much faster pace and has to answer that question. The only race with any serious challenge to him was line 2 which is what I used and with that he will meet his stiffest competition to date. He’s been traveling the B circuit and beating up on weaker foes and gets a much stiffer pace challenge inthis one. At this point I prefer horses whose demonstrated performance is greater. There is much irrational enthusiasm (overhype) due to being undefeated which does not Justify his actual performance. The reward verses risk is not here for his low morning line of probable co-favorite. Somehow at this point its decision time which we must make on the information at hand therefore a downgrade. Vino Rosso: Pace 102 98 = 200 -4. SR 102 Still runs greenly,with blinkers added and maturity he put it all together in last. He is an unknown factor whose top still is unknown. Hehad two loses at Tampa Bay but Jock and trainer say it was the track however his first time over the track his SR increased, I don’t think their correct andGr 1 horses normally don’t lose back to back races against Gr 3 types. He could become something but may not be ready for this. Risk reward is there with a morning line of ??? I just think he must prove too much with this bunch. While not impossible at this point I prefer a horse that is a lesser unknown withmore proven demonstrated performance. Horse 1St FR SC 3rd FR Total Decel. SR Mitch Dis. Rat. Justify 100 105 117= 322 + 12 114 99 Bold d’ Oro 94 102 114 = 310 + 12 110 94 Audible 95 105 104 = 304 - 1 107 88 Noble Indy: 108 109 86 = 303 -26 100 75 Hofburg 96 102 101 = 299 - 1 104 82 Good Magic 86 99 93 = 278 + - 6 98 73 Vino Rosso 90 102 98 = 290 – 4 102 80 Magnum Moon77 98 98 = 273 0 100 75 Mendelssohn Unk. / Competitive 108+ 89+ Another tough 3 year old race with many unknown questions, a pass race that isn’t a prime betting opportunity. But what the hell it is the Derby so look for good risk reward, save the house, bet small and enjoy the race. Look for better ways to use your days betting capital onthe undercard. I suggest passing up on the gimmicks on this feature race, therejust isn’t any defined key horse and too many contenders exist. Therefore I would suggest one stick to win betting with good overlays for your bet or a Daily Double if you get a good race before or after this one, provided they also provide a good price winner. Seek alot for little in this affair and don’t go nuts with it. I went with horses that have upside and decent or possible decent odds for the risk factor this race presents. Good luck. Final Order of top 4: Mendelssohn # 14 5-1, Audible # 58-1, Noble Indy # 19 30-1, Hofburg # 9 20-1, Good Magic # 6 12-1, Justify # 73-1, Vino Rosso # 18 12, Bold d’ Oro # 11 8-1 Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 05-02-2018 at 12:55 PM.