[Ryan.p.coli]

I was handicapping the SA races last night. I threw out the winner of R1 because he had no Turf lines in the last 10 races.

This horse has had mediocre success running dirt routes over the last 10, but finished 9 lengths and 14 lengths back in the last two races. The closest line in the distance was 8.5f race in January where he finished 7th by 6.5 lengths.

Today, he came out and went gate to wire over 10f.

My question is:

Is this a race where one should have passed because I couldn't find a good line on this surface?

Or

Do I try to adjust one of his dirt routes into what one could expect today?

Thanks,
Ryan