Thread: Bugs List!
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Old 02-07-2017, 06:45 PM   #19
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Regarding ProfitLine ranks - differences in TwinSpires readouts versus RDSS: you will notice that in the column labeled ProfitLine, showing an Odds number, the #3 and #5 have the same ProfitLine Odds = 9/2. In fact, there is an underlying probability number in the ProfitLine screen display (e.g. .1537) for each horse which translates into Odds (i.e. thats where the Odds come from). Thus, horses with the same Odds should be ranked the same, which is precisely what RDSS does. It does not look at PL Ranks, it looks at the probability number (or Odds).

I looked at hundreds of ProfitLine screens in adapting that number for display in RDSS. Whenever I saw tied PL Odds yet separate rankings - as best I could determine, the difference was ALWAYS that the tied PL Odds horse with the better ML rank was given the higher PL rank. Thus, for tied PL Odds, this becomes a composite ranking (PL + ML ranks). In RDSS, we already have ML ranks as a separate observation, so I wanted to keep them independent, especially since we are already giving both PL and ML (and other factors) weighting in coming up with the various Rx flavours.

So - that's the method: if tied PL Odds, then tied RDSS PL ranks. As Tim points out, it doesn't often happen, but better to treat those horses as equals rather than assume one is better, though NOT based on whatever goes into the ProfitLine rating.

Ted
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