I have had a full day and only handicapped a few races for tomorrow so I will explain how to do this one race, A PACELESS RACE. No horse in here has shown that they are dedicated E horses so we will pick a POWER LINE for each horse and handicap from there. Set up the race with each horse having his last line selected. Use the automatic paceline selection button. Now go to the #1 horse. Check the ITM Contender box. We want to check each paceline for the horse. If you double click on the far left box above the check boxes for line selection, they will all be checked. Now click on the Analysis tab, this is what you should have:
Since we are on the Original Screen we can see all the pacelines as they appear in the Racing Form. Look at each line and eliminate any line with a finish position that isn't up close or a win. It is tempting to make this horse an E or EP, but she has only won as a Presser and it appears they have begun to take her back because she doesn't win running on the lead. I will be very generous with these horses and give them a close finish with 5 beaten lengths particular if it was against a faster early pace.
Now let's find the fastest early pace with an acceptable finish by clicking on Velocity POR tab. You can see that the last race is the horses POWER LINE as it ran against the fastest F1 and had the best SC. You want to select this line for the horse so go back to the Original Screen and check the box for this line.
When you check the any single line the horse is elevated into the Win contender area. Now repeat these steps. Don't worry if the line is the 2nfd or 5th or 10th. Just select the line that has the acceptable finish with the fastest early pace which will usually pop to the top when you click on the Velocity POR tab. So here we are:
You now have your pacelines and you need to confirm that the horse is capable of delivering them today by answering the following 3 questions:
1). Is he still a horse?, 2). Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3). Can he still get on top of his fractions? These are Jim Bradshaw's questions as relayed to us in the Hat Check Blog. Figure them out! Ok. Let's say you accept them all. Now let's do a little handicapping. Click on the Adjusted tab:
Who are going to be your contenders? Who has run the best against the fastest early pace? Who will be closest to the leader, factoring the pace of the race. I don't like to use the 7.5f GP race for pacelines because they have a run up distance of 264ft. So the early fractions are way to fast. they break from the gate and run 264ft before they break the first timer beam. But you use what you have. From the 1st Call adjusted numbers it appears the the 1st Call will be 48 and some change, the 2nd Call 1:12 and change. Who has competed successfully against these fractions? The #1, #2, #3. Don't get sucked in a horse like #5. He is what you call a "Suck Along Horse" At no time in the race did he make any moves or impact the race. The horses came back to him. If he is 5.6 lengths back of a 1:13.3, what is he going to be today behind a 1:12.2 or 3. Now look at the tandems. in the last 61 days the #1 has beaten the #6 and #7. The #2 has beaten the #3, #5 and #6.
So I'm here:
So id you bet two you have the winner. But look at the Segment and BL/BL screens. Set this race up on your own computer and work it and see what you get. Couple things: When selecting POWER LINES use the ones on today's surface and distance structure over other higher ranked in this dirt lines. Use your common sense! Always default to what is going on today.
Secondly, this is a great example of why the Final Fraction is the least predictive of the fractions. The 3rd fraction is a effect or result of what has happened in the first 2!!! Big 3rd fraction horses are normally slow horses, always prefer earlier running horses. Horses don't run in the back by choice, they are back there because they are slow. Early and Presser horses will always beat Sustained horses except if they run too fast early which is the result of pace pressure on the lead. Or it is a conformation or genetic thing. They're Quarter horses. I should throw injury in there too.
If I have time tomorrow I'll do one of the others.