It has been 27 years since Bill Shoemaker guided Ferdinand to victory in the Kentucky Derby in a field that included Groovy who set a blazing pace for six furlongs in the Derby and the race favorite, Snow Chief.
If we look at the result chart and focus on the running line of Snow Chief; we find a striking resemblance to the running line of Oxbow. Both of these horses ran too close to the hot pace of their respective Derby but both were able to prevail and win their next start in the Preakness Stakes.
Patterns repeating; even after 27 years...
Focus on Snow Chief in the Derby result chart:
Now we zoom in on Oxbow in the Derby result chart:
It is important to take into consideration that when a horse sets a super fast pace in the Derby; he is not guaranteed to win the next race. Sometimes, they injured themselves and they will never race again. They blow a "gasket" so to speak. The huge energy exertions took a toll on their muscles. We can include Songandprayer, Spanish Chestnut and Bodemeister to name a few who had to be retired soon after their Derby exertions.
I am displaying the result chart of Verranzano's victory in the Pegasus Stakes to point out his strong sustained fraction. Verranzano also ran like Oxbow and Snow Chief in the Derby as Verranzano also chased the fast early pace before faltering down the stretch.
(IMHO)These examples give us some guidance to focus on the horses that ran close to the Derby pace even though they didn't finish well at the end of the Derby race. Sometimes, they might reward followers of the "Derby pace" angle with some rewarding mutuels in the race after the Derby.