Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 07-17-2016, 11:22 PM

What is so useful in comparing Running Style and ESP is that you can find horses that take the lead but they have Sustained energy distribution. You find these horses most often in Graded races as they are supreme athletes. I have personally always marveled at horses the were over 10 lengths back at the 1st call and end up winning the race and their ESP is EP. That is evidence that the horse closed into a very week final fraction as all the Es and Ps just stopped. Check the %Med on late horses. On dirt a good S horse should run as low as 66% but generally in the 67% area. On turf they can go lower.
It is all about the competition in today's race and are the earlier runners going to go "too fast too early". Early horses that can pop the gate and gain immediate separation on their competitors while running within their capabilities will be damn hard to catch.
Horses that surrender lengths at the beginning of the race have to make that ground up later in the race. The only way to do that is to be running faster than the leader(s), a big 2nd fraction Presser may do this rapidly by passing the initial leader, but depending on the ground to be made up the differential in the velocity of the current leader and the closing runner will take greater or lesser time depending on the deficit and the closing horse's velocity.
There is one absolute law in all of racing: You don't have any traffic problems running on the front end.(Although I did see a comment once from a race at Hollywood probably 20 years ago, "Hit in head by bird".)

07-17-2016, 11:22 PM	#9
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	One thing to always remember... What is so useful in comparing Running Style and ESP is that you can find horses that take the lead but they have Sustained energy distribution. You find these horses most often in Graded races as they are supreme athletes. I have personally always marveled at horses the were over 10 lengths back at the 1st call and end up winning the race and their ESP is EP. That is evidence that the horse closed into a very week final fraction as all the Es and Ps just stopped. Check the %Med on late horses. On dirt a good S horse should run as low as 66% but generally in the 67% area. On turf they can go lower. It is all about the competition in today's race and are the earlier runners going to go "too fast too early". Early horses that can pop the gate and gain immediate separation on their competitors while running within their capabilities will be damn hard to catch. Horses that surrender lengths at the beginning of the race have to make that ground up later in the race. The only way to do that is to be running faster than the leader(s), a big 2nd fraction Presser may do this rapidly by passing the initial leader, but depending on the ground to be made up the differential in the velocity of the current leader and the closing runner will take greater or lesser time depending on the deficit and the closing horse's velocity. There is one absolute law in all of racing: You don't have any traffic problems running on the front end.(Although I did see a comment once from a race at Hollywood probably 20 years ago, "Hit in head by bird".)