Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless
FTL and Bill
I was using Energy over the weekend at Parx concentrating on 6
and 6.5 furlong races.
There were a few presser and sustained races which FTL I didn't
look at the sort. I noticed that the winners were coming from that
3rd fraction readout on late. Also a 9-1 and 21-1 ranked 2nd that
placed with the winner in the top 3.
The variegate seems to really nail how the race will be run
I know it's a small sample but maybe there is hope at the end of
the tunnel after all.
Thanks
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Shoeless,
Here is the race Richie P put up the other day. It is race 4 from Remington on 9/16/17.
This is the way I did the race.
FIRST - the #5 horse was scratched.
SECOND - throw out the #6 and #8 horses as their ML was 20/1 and 30/1 respectively.
The remainning horses are #'s 1,2,3,4,7,9.
Now, horse by horse;
#1 - last line. The race was just 17 days ago and it is a (+) race. Why? It made up ground between the first and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.
#2 - last line. The race was just 12 days ago and it is a + race. why? It won the race.
#3 - last line. The race was just 17 days ago and it is a + race. why? It ran third.
#4 - NO LINE. why not? It has just one race in the last 90 days. In fact, it has just one race in the last 152 days. It is a turf race, so it is not comparable.
#7 - last line. The race was just 9 days ago and it is a + race. why? It ran third.
#9 - line 2. The race was 50 days ago and it was a + race. why> It won the race. Now, this horse has only 9 lifetime races, so they are all there for you to see. Take note that it made its' first start 728 days ago when it was just 2 years old. It was a Maiden Special Weight race, so its' connections had hopes for it. Notice the steady decline in class of race after that. Also notice that its' first 7 race were all on the turf. After its' second race it was off 172 days. That's almost 6 months. Then after its' 6th race it was off for 358 days or just about one year. The second race back after that lastoff it was dropped to its' lowest level and won. This time on the dirt. It then racein a 7F race. Ok, so the 7F race iisn't comparable and all the turf races aren't comparable, so all you are left with is the winning race, two back, on a muddy track. Oh well, that's all we have so we have to use it.
Now we have 5 horses to consider.
Here are the results in ENERGY.
I have marked some things in RED so just follow along.