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Old 08-16-2019, 08:42 AM   #10
rdiam
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 487
Although precision is the goal, the reality is that we can only estimate the odds we will actually receive in a pari-mutuel betting pool. But realize that indecision comes only when the current market odds "close" to post time are around an odds decision point: i.e., when you require 5/2 or better, you are watching only when the tote odds are 2-1/5-2/3-1, etc. If the horse is 1-1 you know you are going to pass, and if the horse is 5-1 you know you are going to bet.

In addition, so-called "lookback" lines are quite useful and accurate in predicting where a win betting market will close out -- that is, using the "will pays" in the daily double pool are highly predictive of final odds in the current race win pool.

Finally, we can assume that betting "errors" are distributed randomly, so that for every time we make a bet below our threshold, there will be cases when another horse is bet down late and we receive a bit "extra" as the odds on our horse rise at post.

Hope this helps.

Richard
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