Quote:
Originally Posted by Cincyhorseplayer
How do you guys go about layoffs?personally I regard all layoff horses of 8 weeks or more as marginal contenders and would only use them as throw ins if their numbers warranted,unless they were entering a race with an ideal probable pace scenario.This is my method of dealing with it at least right off.Too many horses cannot approximate a top effort after a rest,especially at lowe class tracks.At higher class tracks it can be a virtue but the signs are all there to make it so also.Just wanted your thoughts.
Rod
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Hey Cincy...I don't know if you are the same poster from PaceAdvantage but it doesnt matter..great stats from your first use of RDSS. It seemed you learned quickly young jedi as your stats seem quite successful..You seemed to know very well what races to play and what pacelines to enter which only comes from years of handicapping experiences...well done..
My own criteria would be the returning layoff contender:
a) be enter in a previous distance that the horse had won before or within a half furlong shorter. Horse won at 6.5 furlongs and today is 6 furlong.
b)distance specialist....has won or been competitive at the distance.
c)regarding class...we have tools available to ascertain if the horse will be competitive at today's level...example:total energy in relation to field
d)last factor and in my humble opinion...the layoff contender is the controlling speed in today's pace matchup.....which basically states that most contenders are early runners..
e)I will add to keep an open mind...I hate to make a rules lists....this is just a guideline....we start making rules and trainers get wind of our thoughts and trained their horses differently to counter our lists of rules to bet against...
I remember that Michael Dickerson had trained Da Hoss off a two year layoff using only one prep race on turf to win the BC Mile turf. What a great training job....or years ago at Santa Anita..I believe it was one of the Stute brothers who entered Mandatto off a two year layoff and win a mid level claiming race at a mile and 1/16 race to trigger a one ticket pick six that paid over $340,000... I had 5 out 6 races..
