Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
Here is my answer to pace line question
This might not be the best choice for everybody but its how I would
look at it.
The issue is which line would I use line 1 or line 3 ?
I would use line 3. Line 1 is a plus race, so is line 3
Line 1 has a speed rating of 80, Line 3 has a speed rating of 85
The 85 is not out of the norm for this horse I see it has run 86 speed ratings
in line 9 and line 6
The person who asked this question does not use RDSS but my decision is supported by the early late graph,
In line 3 the horse ran its normal energy pattern of about + 9 or 10
(his EP was 9 points higher than it LP )
In the last line the horse ran with more energy late than early
so it shows a -.5
It looks to me like this was a tired horse. The trainer gave it a 4 week freshening. after a plus race. I look at this as a positive form factor.
without that freshening break I would use line 1. But with that break,
I would use line 3
I would use line 3 over line 1
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Hi Bill,
I know you wrote this some time ago, and I've mis-read things before (i.e. Doc writing in one of the follow-ups not to use a race where the house was beaten by more than 7.5 lengths...only to read a post from you explaining he meant that in relation to a certain program).
So having missed that I want to clarify something else I read.
In the Yellow Manual under Form Cycle Detection it says a a + is a race in which the horse won, placed or showed within 2.75 lengths of the winner.
In this post you state that Line 1 is a plus race at Show but 5 lengths back.
Can I assume that the 2.75 length margin is no longer needed for todays programs such as RDSS2?
Thank You,
Bill