Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Santa Anita 3-09-2013 Sat. Race 3

alydar_ David · 03-09-2013, 08:41 AM

Thanks for putting up the race, Lone Speed.

The first thing I do is briefly scan the contestants to get a Gestalt feeling of the race.

What immediately jumps out is the fact that four of the eight horses have just been claimed. Let's see if that provides any insights.

#1 Donato claimed by Kristin Mulhall. 18% first off the claim.
#5 Graeme Crackerjack claimed by Doug O'Neill. 10% first off the claim.
#6 Spit Ball claimed by Ronald Ellis. 16% first off the claim.
#7 Brass Plate claimed by Bobby Grayson. 0% first off the claim.

Not only is Bobby Grayson 0% first off the claim. He's 0% second, 0% third and 0% fourth off the claim. This is a valuable piece of information. I can eliminate #7 Brass Plate from contention immediately.

Let's see who's fastest enough to win, based on every horse's last ten races shown in the past performances. #6 Spit Ball is too slow to win. We're down to five contenders for win.

How does the race shape up? #1 Donato appears to be the sole front runner and will be the horse to catch. He's also get the best EP rating. Donato has the best recent Beyer number, but it's the best number shown in his past performances. Can a six year old gelding repeat that effort? Answer: not likely, he'll probably bounce. Can he bounce and still win? Maybe. So, Donato has arrows pointing in both directions.

I won't be betting the race, can't figure out#1 Donato. But if there were a gun to my head that would be my pick; or, if I could get 10-1 on the horse I'd send it in. But most certainly not at 7/2.

03-09-2013, 08:41 AM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Thanks for putting up the race, Lone Speed. The first thing I do is briefly scan the contestants to get a Gestalt feeling of the race. What immediately jumps out is the fact that four of the eight horses have just been claimed. Let's see if that provides any insights. #1 Donato claimed by Kristin Mulhall. 18% first off the claim. #5 Graeme Crackerjack claimed by Doug O'Neill. 10% first off the claim. #6 Spit Ball claimed by Ronald Ellis. 16% first off the claim. #7 Brass Plate claimed by Bobby Grayson. 0% first off the claim. Not only is Bobby Grayson 0% first off the claim. He's 0% second, 0% third and 0% fourth off the claim. This is a valuable piece of information. I can eliminate #7 Brass Plate from contention immediately. Let's see who's fastest enough to win, based on every horse's last ten races shown in the past performances. #6 Spit Ball is too slow to win. We're down to five contenders for win. How does the race shape up? #1 Donato appears to be the sole front runner and will be the horse to catch. He's also get the best EP rating. Donato has the best recent Beyer number, but it's the best number shown in his past performances. Can a six year old gelding repeat that effort? Answer: not likely, he'll probably bounce. Can he bounce and still win? Maybe. So, Donato has arrows pointing in both directions. I won't be betting the race, can't figure out#1 Donato. But if there were a gun to my head that would be my pick; or, if I could get 10-1 on the horse I'd send it in. But most certainly not at 7/2.