Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - TAM 12-01-17 Potential Longshots (Win Bets Only)

partsnut · 12-01-2017, 11:56 AM

TAM 12-01-17 Potential Longshots (Win Bets Only)

Today's selections are for win only.
I am a one horse win bettor so I will list just one horse per race.
For those that bet 2 horses, feel free to list your opinions.

As I mentioned previously, betting on longshots and betting only one horse in my selected races affords me the comfort level to acquire a lower hit rate then the normal 30% or higher betting lower priced horses (1 per race) or
60% or higher when betting 2 horses which significantly reduces the odds on the winning horse when you do hit. Example. If I bet 2 (7-2 odds) horses in a race and one wins. My return is $9.00 for $4.00 bet or $ 4.50 for each $2.00 bet. That breaks down to 2-1 odds when you win.
That does not work for me.

Keep in mind that 70% of the races are won by horses that are 4-1 or lower on the morning line.
I look for the remaining 30%. As Ken Massa related in one of his studies, the strongest range for longshots would be 5-1 to 12-1 morning line odds.

Here are my single picks for today's Tampa 12-01-17

Race-3.....(#3)

Race-5.....(#12)

Race-6.....(#5)

Race-7.....(#4)

Race-8.....(#1)

Race-9.....(#7)

Good Luck and Good Skills.
Please keep Bill V. in your thoughts and prayers.

Bill I wish you the best.
Get well soon.

12-01-2017, 11:56 AM	#1
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	TAM 12-01-17 Potential Longshots (Win Bets Only) TAM 12-01-17 Potential Longshots (Win Bets Only) Today's selections are for win only. I am a one horse win bettor so I will list just one horse per race. For those that bet 2 horses, feel free to list your opinions. As I mentioned previously, betting on longshots and betting only one horse in my selected races affords me the comfort level to acquire a lower hit rate then the normal 30% or higher betting lower priced horses (1 per race) or 60% or higher when betting 2 horses which significantly reduces the odds on the winning horse when you do hit. Example. If I bet 2 (7-2 odds) horses in a race and one wins. My return is $9.00 for $4.00 bet or $ 4.50 for each $2.00 bet. That breaks down to 2-1 odds when you win. That does not work for me. Keep in mind that 70% of the races are won by horses that are 4-1 or lower on the morning line. I look for the remaining 30%. As Ken Massa related in one of his studies, the strongest range for longshots would be 5-1 to 12-1 morning line odds. Here are my single picks for today's Tampa 12-01-17 Race-3.....(#3) Race-5.....(#12) Race-6.....(#5) Race-7.....(#4) Race-8.....(#1) Race-9.....(#7) Good Luck and Good Skills. Please keep Bill V. in your thoughts and prayers. Bill I wish you the best. Get well soon.