Bill V and I discussed this race earlier today. Bill was quite certain that the #6 horse had an early advantage and ask for my opinion. I agreed. It had a HUGE advantage. When I talk about "early", I mean at the first fraction. It also had a huge advantage at the second call.
From a betting point of view, I had no interest in the race for a couple of reasons.
1 - with a ML of 2/1, there was no way to get a price on this horse
2 - betting against it could be detrimental to your bankroll
It is just easier to PASS.
I did want to make some comments, however.
I think it is important to note, that when reading the segments screen, you have to read BOTH the "computed beaten lengths" section
and at the same time read the "incremental match up" (segments screen). Here's why.
Under "computed beaten lengths and F1, it shows the #6 with "0.0" beaten lengths. In the same section, the #9 shows "8.4" beaten lengths.
Under "incremental match up" and F1, it shows the #6 1st and the #9 3rd.
If you read the computed beaten lengths and F1, you will see that the only horse further back than the #9 is the #10 at 17.5 lengths, who shows 4th on the F1 segments screen.
Moving to the SC section of the computed beaten lengths screen, you can see that the #6 horse is still the leader at the second call with "0.0" beaten lengths.
At the same time over on the incremental match up screen, it shows under segment F2 that the #9 is 1st and the #6 2nd.
This
DOES NOT MEAN, the #9 will overtake the #6 at the second call. It means, that during the running of the
2nd FRACTION, the #9 will be running faster than the #6, while still being "3.0" beaten lengths behind the #6 as shown under the computed beaten lengths screen at the second call ("SC").
Now....
IF in today's race, the #6 backs up 13.25 lengths again, and
IF in today's race, the #9 makes up 5.25 lengths from the second call to the finish as it did in the line used, line 3, and
IF no other unsuspecting horse runs a better race than anticipated,
THEN the race may turn out as shown.
The question in this race is, what is the condition of the #6 horse? It is dropping down from a lengthy series of Allowance races for NW1X and one "OC" race with the same condition, to a $5,000 claiming race with a NW2 in 2012 condition. Will this horse be running on 4 legs today or just 3 legs? Even on 3 legs it is probably the best horse.
With regard to the #9 horse and the use of the 3rd line back. In follow up #88 Doc said this.
So my question would be,
"what is the evidence" that the #9 will run back to the line used. It didn't run back to it in line 2 and it didn't run back to it in line 1.
Keep in mind, this is a valid question in any instance where you go back 3 or 4 lines for a horse and it has run more lack luster races since, even when those races were at similar distances and on similar surfaces.