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Whether one makes an adjustment from a Par such as 0 or 17 really makes little or no differences as long as the method is applied in a consistent manner and from a consistent Par or point of deviation.
Sartin always said that handicappers are adjustment happy and given an option will always make adjustments even when their not needed. They actually adjusted themselves out of getting the winner in many cases. His adjustments through research was reduced to 50% or half and the winners increased.
Many races are won without any adjustments at all because his research determined that the Match Up of the horses within the race contributed more in determining the winner of a race that the Daily Track Variant etc. etc. He said it was; 80% determined by the Match Up. I believe it could be even higher.
Manmade best times or Pars (used for deviation from the norm) always suffer from the time lag it takes to determine them. By the time that's done many track meets are over, a year of data is completely wiped out with a new surface or to prevent breakdowns soil is added such as SA. Lastly most are taken from POR instead of from POH of the winner of the race. The Match Up is as immediate, timely or accurate as one can get. It does represent the present.
Lastly DTV are nullified greatly but not totally by the use of using the 1Fr,2ndFR and 3rd FR, it spreads the inequities around or distributes the DTV which reduces the effect of it. Combine those FR's into compounded Factors such as EP, SP, He etc, and the effect is even less of an influence on the outcome.
I do know one thing and that is regardless of what is used as a Par or starting point for adjustments, abhorrent (unusual verses the norm) DTV or any other adjustment should be viewed with a very suspicious eye. I review my lines chosen to avoid unusual DTV in order to enhance the efficiency of the program.
DRF, RDSS and Bris all use different formulas for DTV, Beaten Lengths etc. What makes all of them successful is a consistent approach and formula.
The one area where RDSS shines over some other products is the adjustments used for stretch outs and cutback in distances. This is a frequent problem the handicapper must deal with in handicapping and Sartin is the only one to make an attempt to address this problem.
Mitch44
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