[Lt1]

It's been a yr and a half since I conducted a survey of the factors. Since I still employ them I decided to conduct another 100 race survey and share the findings for those interested. The tracks were Parx, TDN, MTH, WO. Here are the results

Winner No Defects
75
Winner No W/O Or Race Last 30 days
17*l13 trained by good trns]
Winner with Running Line Defect[not up close Str call last race same class or lower
8
Winner Declining In Form[2/5th Sec Slower[compared to previous race same class] then required 5
Winner Having Stretch Loss Defect
6 Horse up close str[same level or lower & dist structure then todays' race losing more then 1 length to finish.
You will note that the totals are greater the 100 and that is due to several winners having multi defects.
In the previous 200 race survey there were 82 winners with no defects, 10 winners with recency defect, 6 winners with a running line defect, 3 winners with declining form defect, and 6 winners with a stretch loss defect. In my own capping I'm more forgiving in the recency Department for horses trained by good trainers[ I consider a win% of 12 & up good and w% of 10 &11 ok] due to reality of todays' racing where horses are not raced or trained as much as in the past. I'm not forgiving in the other factors. Good luck to all in your handicapping.
Tim