[Mitch44]

gptx:

I would suggest that you do your own study on this. Do you own study on any stat because one never knowns how the data was collected unless it was your own. or how intelligent the collector was.


The game has changed much since 2013. 91% tends to lock a person into only the top two lines and will cost one many winners, one shouldn't give up any percentage going into a race with a very restricted rule. Gathering of facts can be very subjective and are greatly influenced by the races selected to gather the facts. Then again some can only function with very strict rules and limit their ability by doing so. An example of how data is collected is the following: 3 yr. old's are learning while improving every month because of the maturity factor. In most cases the last line will be the correct line for a 3 year. If a lot of 3 yr. old races are included in a study, survey, or collection it'll skew the results and percentages. In fact in this year Ky. Derby out of 20 horses the last line is correct in at least 17 of those horses or 18 ( can't remember if its 2 or 3 when I looked at it last Saturday).That 85 to 90 % just for that race and age group. Follow that last line theory into races of older horses and your going to encounter many loses by only using the last line.

The majority of times the correct line will be in the last three however there are exceptions to everything. If a horse ran at the incorrect distance or surface that could take one to line 4. Don't forget Sartin's caveat of "at a comparable distance and surface."

Sartin guidelines keep us attuned to one of the most important factors that influence the outcome of a race and that is current condition. The further one goes back the less likely your dealing with the same horse. The object is to pick the line that best represents the horse and what it will do today and or have to do today.

Mitch44