Quote:
Originally Posted by yort2000
GeneRayburn here. I forgot my password and I guess I no longer have the email address associated with that account either. I did get a password reset email for this account when I was plunking in the email addresses I still have in the lost password form. I must have set this account up when I forgot my password sometime previously.
I will put my calculated fractions for the past four UAE Derbies as that is when they switched to "real" dirt. I adjust the first 400m by subtracting 2 seconds for the run up. Just like my password, I don't remember why I went to 2 seconds, but it was because of long ago research that I did that is now forgotten, but I'll stick with it. I then convert that time into an average speed for the 400m and project that average speed to 2 furlongs or the first 1/4. As Mitch44 pointed out, you can then use the splits from all subsequent calls. I.E. I use the actual split difference from 400m to 800m and calculate the average speed for that 400m segment and project that average speed to the next 2 furlongs. I do this for each split 400m segment. I do a simple deceleration calculation for the final 300m segment (1600m to 1900m) assuming the horses run the first 200m slightly faster than the last 100m.
Ok, a lot of explaining for this:
2018 23.22 46.73 1:10.28 1:34.86 1:47.51
2017 22.93 46.47 1:12.28 1:37.26 1:50.04
2016 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.47 1:50.53
2015 24.14 48.26 1:12.67 1:38.12 1:50.35
Are these numbers exact? No. But they give a rough guideline and with that, WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! That sustained move from the 1/2 through the 1m based on the 46.73 1/2 time is amazing in relation to what horses were able to do here previously. This horse is in another league than anything that ran here before, regardless of track bias or variant. What does that mean? Who knows with all the negatives (shipping so close to race date, no time to acclimate, poor trainer and jockey stats for American dirt races). But, I will not be leaving him off the top of my superfecta tickets.
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When I first looked at these numbers and calculations, I didn't believe it. I figured there had to be a timing malfunction. So, l loaded up the 2018 replay video and synced it with the 2017 replay video and the times matched up. I then synced it with the 2016 replay video and those times matched up as well. In both cases, the winners of the races the previous years would have been back with 2nd and 3rd place horses this year when Mendellsohn hit the wire. So, no timing malfunction.