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These splits are about 7 feet longer per split. How much of an adjustment is that? Well it depends on what you use as to the number of feet per beaten length or any other formula being used. Whatever is used would have to be used on the actual horses racing in the Derby for an accurate comparison. All horses would have to be treated equal for accuracy.Of course a good argument is many of races are won or loss by even one length or less. Which is fine as long as their all treated the same.
I chose what I believed was the biggest effect on the race which was and will be the track itself or variant. Even Sartin said many times that many races are won without any adjustments and handicappers are adjustment happy while over adjusting. He later cut adjustments to half.
IMO the biggest take from this whole thing is comparative handicapping when one considers Mendelson splits and time to older horses on the same track and same day. A 3 yr. old just shouldn't be able to do that and signals a freak. For a purse of $10,000,000 I think Thunder Snow race was legit.
Mitch44
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