Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless
FTL
Once you come up with your contenders will you then try to
narrow the field down from those or just enter all in the program
I have been studying your threads just follow the guidelines
and picking contenders both very well done
Have learned quite a bit from your posts and thanks
Jeff
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Shoeless,
Once you have your contenders enter them into the program and let it do the work.
Keep in mind that as you looked at the race horse by horse, you should have taken note of things that may raise a red flag for you. I’m going to use the Pennsylvania Derby Bill V put up today as an example.
Naturally, the numbers 3,6,9 and 10 horses are eliminated due their ML being 20/1 or higher.
All other horses have both a race and a + or (+) line in the last 90 days.
Now,
horse #2, the horse’s ML (12/1) is “ok” and it has a recent line (line 1, 57 days ago) that is a + race because the horse won. That race appears to be what is known as an “overnight” stake because of the low purse. But I couldn’t help notice the lower case “r” in front of the purse value of that race. If you are not aware of this, the lower case “r” means that was a “restricted” race. “Restricted” to what? Without doing a little investigating, I don’t know, but I do know it was NOT open to all comers as is today’s race. Here is an example. Each year, around Halloween, PARX runs a race called the “Halloween Handicap” or “Ghost Handicap” or some name like that, but it is a “restricted” race. What is the “restriction”?... only horses that are grey or roan are eligible. A “state Bred” race is also a “restricted” race, but it is not designated that way because it is already designated a “State Bred” race, so you know the race is “restricted” to horses bred in a specified state. At any rate, is this horse really a contender today when facing G1 horses on an open basis? I don’t think so! I enter it, but in the back of my mind it is a non-contender.
Here are the screen shots from ENERGY on the race.
Sorry, no good prices on this one.