Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 07-01-2016, 06:08 PM

I was going to Tampa Bay today because I had a ticket I needed to cash for $66 and change from back in March when I bet race #13 and left after the bigger races.

It was an ugly card today and one which I would have passed otherwise. My brother backed out of going because he likes good horses and follows bloodlines. Therefore I just stayed home and bet it on my Twinspires account.

I threw my normal techniques out and looked for longshots as these races were all cheap Md. Clm. , MSW and mostly turf. Even the two dirt races were clm. 10,000 NW 2 ,3 etc. They ran at Tampa the last two days to qualify for their simulcasting license for the rest of the year.

I did do all the races in RDSS to look for gaps and horses I could key with my longshot picks. Played them for win, hooked them up for DD and played some EX. It ended up working out great as you can see below:

Hit a nice one in the 2nd at Tampa Bay: # 3 paid $ 104.40, also had the DD 1 & 2 race and 2nd & 3rd race.

COMPLETED: 2e1b5-2bcf5 TAM #2 $2 Double 3, 8, WT, 2, 3, 6 none $12.00 $321.00 + $309.00 Note: the favorite won the 2nd leg here of the DD and it still paid good.

COMPLETED: 5f249-a510b TAM #2 $5 Win 3, 8 none $10.00 $261.00 + $251.00

COMPLETED: cb658-3811a TAM #1 $1 Double 5, 6, WT, 3, 8 none $4.00 $144.60 + $140.60

The lesson to take away here is once you make a decision stick to it regardless of odds. Also do a complete analysis of each horse. Normally I do a complete analysis of my contenders and any horse that won its last race. In these cheap races it pays to do an analysis of every horse in the race, especially if your playing a DD, P-3 etc.

Tracks somehow have a way of sandwiching these type races in between other good races all the time. Also because these aren't going to win on a high percentage you need to lower your bets and outlay, plus the payoffs are greater so you can get a lot for little.

Good luck,
Mitch44

07-01-2016, 06:08 PM	#1
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Hit a good one today. I was going to Tampa Bay today because I had a ticket I needed to cash for $66 and change from back in March when I bet race #13 and left after the bigger races. It was an ugly card today and one which I would have passed otherwise. My brother backed out of going because he likes good horses and follows bloodlines. Therefore I just stayed home and bet it on my Twinspires account. I threw my normal techniques out and looked for longshots as these races were all cheap Md. Clm. , MSW and mostly turf. Even the two dirt races were clm. 10,000 NW 2 ,3 etc. They ran at Tampa the last two days to qualify for their simulcasting license for the rest of the year. I did do all the races in RDSS to look for gaps and horses I could key with my longshot picks. Played them for win, hooked them up for DD and played some EX. It ended up working out great as you can see below: Hit a nice one in the 2nd at Tampa Bay: # 3 paid $ 104.40, also had the DD 1 & 2 race and 2nd & 3rd race. COMPLETED: 2e1b5-2bcf5 TAM #2 $2 Double 3, 8, WT, 2, 3, 6 none $12.00 $321.00 + $309.00 Note: the favorite won the 2nd leg here of the DD and it still paid good. COMPLETED: 5f249-a510b TAM #2 $5 Win 3, 8 none $10.00 $261.00 + $251.00 COMPLETED: cb658-3811a TAM #1 $1 Double 5, 6, WT, 3, 8 none $4.00 $144.60 + $140.60 The lesson to take away here is once you make a decision stick to it regardless of odds. Also do a complete analysis of each horse. Normally I do a complete analysis of my contenders and any horse that won its last race. In these cheap races it pays to do an analysis of every horse in the race, especially if your playing a DD, P-3 etc. Tracks somehow have a way of sandwiching these type races in between other good races all the time. Also because these aren't going to win on a high percentage you need to lower your bets and outlay, plus the payoffs are greater so you can get a lot for little. Good luck, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-01-2016 at 06:12 PM.