Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - 'For the Lead' Guidelines

zimal2 · 02-06-2018, 12:10 PM

I've followed with great interest FTL's postings and taken out many nuggets. Thank you Bill for amassing them all in one place, and FTL for your hard work and prescient observations in the first place.

I ran past 12 months numbers for equal to and greater than 20/1 MLO and and got 2% winners for all tracks, all race types and distances. Little variation whether turf, dirt or artificial. 37,519 horses involved. So even worse than FTL's 6%.

But with first after 90 day layoff I get something different. With 25,241 horses allburger there were 11% winners. And using any number of filters, I can push that up to 18 to 20% of 3500 horses or close to 700 winners with an average win price of about $7.60. So I'm tossing those high MLO odds, but looking much more cautiously at 1pL 90+

Zim

02-06-2018, 12:10 PM	#44
zimal2 AlwNW1X Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 17	Basic assumptions I've followed with great interest FTL's postings and taken out many nuggets. Thank you Bill for amassing them all in one place, and FTL for your hard work and prescient observations in the first place. I ran past 12 months numbers for equal to and greater than 20/1 MLO and and got 2% winners for all tracks, all race types and distances. Little variation whether turf, dirt or artificial. 37,519 horses involved. So even worse than FTL's 6%. But with first after 90 day layoff I get something different. With 25,241 horses allburger there were 11% winners. And using any number of filters, I can push that up to 18 to 20% of 3500 horses or close to 700 winners with an average win price of about $7.60. So I'm tossing those high MLO odds, but looking much more cautiously at 1pL 90+ Zim