This isn't the easiest of races, since you have to contend with those Santa Anita downhill turf lines, but here goes.
On paper, not a lot of early speed. The 3 and the 9 are the most likely to battle for the front. Since the 3 has run a faster fraction on the downhill course than the 9, the 9 is out.
Despite there not being a lot of early pace that can compromise the 3, I don't think the 9 will wire for one large reason: I don't think it can win at the distance. Firstly, looking at its past performances the 3 Jazzy Josh encounters problems when it is asked to run over 6 furlongs. This may be due to the second reason, its pedigree. Brisnet's Average Winning Distance or AWD numbers for the pedigree of the horse are 6.0 and 6.2 respectively, which means that the horse is probably most comfortable in the 5.5-6.5 furlong range.
The 3 does have some positives, such as that the horse is now in the hands or Richard Baltas and is losing its blinkers, presumably for the purpose of getting the horse to relax and slow down a little, but I don't think its enough to get it to run 8 furlongs successfully in this group of horses.
The race will run OTE, and the horse that has done best against the quickest pace is the 1 horse. It has succeeded against a faster 6.5f turf pace than either the 3 or 9 can ever throw in its way and it did gain lengths in the 7f San Vincente stakes two races back. Another bonus: it is 2 for 2 on the grass.
I bet the
to win.