Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedForSpeed
Hi FTL. First up I want to say that I did read a post to someone else a while back where you stated your database contains over 5 mil horses. Once I got my jaw back in place I said well, I'm gonna make a separate category for FTL posts. One where I pay special attention to whats being said. That and I do have a curiosity to conditions and I want to push myself to learn everything I can about it. With that said can I ask you a couple of questions?
1- Can I myself automatically cross off 20-1 and above ML odds and make them non contenders? Again I am trying not to leave any stones unturned or dismiss horses so quickly even though the answer may be obvious.
2- I notice you tossed out the #10. The #10 doesn't have any route races. So would the same apply to the #4 horse? His last 10 races are dominated by sprints. He has a very good recent record. But are these lines comparable in the way Doctor Sartin intended them to be?
|
In my experience, the best way to find solid contenders is to first find the non contenders. If you can eliminate the losers then only the possible winners remain. This must be a consistent approach. If and when you get beat by a non contender, and you WILL get beat by one, just go on to the next race and follow your consistent approach.
So in answer to your first question, yes. I understand what you are saying about leaving no stone unturned. If I could put my hands on it right now, I just don't remember where I saw it, DOC cautioned about putting non contenders "in". They change your readouts and could cause you to forget that they were really non contenders.
I don't know about the #4 horse. I didn't look at it, but I'll try to let "DOC" answer your second question. This is from the Paceline Manual. There is more to it, but this is the pertinent part.
This was on page 17 of the manual.