Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 06-27-2014, 07:08 PM

First, I acknowledge that this post is made after the race was run, so my comments are meant to be taken in general and not this specific case.

Generally speaking you want horses that have run on this course before. Routers that ran fast as E or EP (or even Pressers that gained lengths from close up) also can be considered as long as their adjusted SRs equal or exceed that of the runners from previous 6.5 down the hill turf races at SA. by fast I mean 109 or 110 six furlong splits in mile races or longer.

Also, for some reason, the adjusted SRs (ASR) of horses who have run on the course are about 7 or 8 points LOWER than for horses that have run on flat 6 furlong tracks (like the old Hollywood races), so the today's race using dirt lines of horses with ASRs of 80 and 79 vs SA 6.5 turf lines of 80 and 79 is really like comparing horses with ASRs of 86 or 87 (in the case of an 80 6.5 turf SA line). Horses with dirt ASRs of 80 are seriously disadvantaged vs the runners with ASRs from SA's turf course. Just for reference, horses that get ASRs of 80 or higher from the SA down the hill sprint course are fairly rare.

Conversely, when the only turf lines are sprint lines from the downhill turf course you can consider as contenders in longer races those horses with relatively (to the field) exceptional late pace numbers (LP) on the early - late graph. The down the hill lines do not project well so this is the only clue that I have found that might point to a horse that can successfully stretch out.

Bill

06-27-2014, 07:08 PM	#35
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	First, I acknowledge that this post is made after the race was run, so my comments are meant to be taken in general and not this specific case. Generally speaking you want horses that have run on this course before. Routers that ran fast as E or EP (or even Pressers that gained lengths from close up) also can be considered as long as their adjusted SRs equal or exceed that of the runners from previous 6.5 down the hill turf races at SA. by fast I mean 109 or 110 six furlong splits in mile races or longer. Also, for some reason, the adjusted SRs (ASR) of horses who have run on the course are about 7 or 8 points LOWER than for horses that have run on flat 6 furlong tracks (like the old Hollywood races), so the today's race using dirt lines of horses with ASRs of 80 and 79 vs SA 6.5 turf lines of 80 and 79 is really like comparing horses with ASRs of 86 or 87 (in the case of an 80 6.5 turf SA line). Horses with dirt ASRs of 80 are seriously disadvantaged vs the runners with ASRs from SA's turf course. Just for reference, horses that get ASRs of 80 or higher from the SA down the hill sprint course are fairly rare. Conversely, when the only turf lines are sprint lines from the downhill turf course you can consider as contenders in longer races those horses with relatively (to the field) exceptional late pace numbers (LP) on the early - late graph. The down the hill lines do not project well so this is the only clue that I have found that might point to a horse that can successfully stretch out. Bill