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Old 06-16-2013, 10:43 AM   #9
Bill V.
The egg man
 
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Need For Speed

The best book on handicapping I ever read was Pace Makes The Race
I learned all about TPR numbers but It was all the other aspects of
how to win with the methodology that hit me.

The lessons on record keeping helped me the most

I did races with TPR numbers for close to 6 months, I tracked
what winners looked like and earned as a rating.
I used the raw numbers from the charts in the book at first, then I used the Phase 1 program.
What I started to notice was that the horses with the best TPR numbers also had the best ASR - Adjusted Speed Ratings
I had all my records of winners ratings and plus race efforts.
I eventually went back to using the ASR instead of TPR


I really am impressed by your work ethic and desire to learn
and that you are practicing with the example data base races.
I do the same thing but I download Parx every day.
and go back over races for many years to practice.

I use the ASR as a grade or measure of its ability
RDSS2 color codes the plus races, so I just run my eye from bottom to top
and note the ASR a horse earns in its plus races by the colored lines.
That is what I did for your example race.

FTL gave a great example of the problems the horse had in race 2
The 69 ASR to me says DANGER DANGER Will Robinson
So I look at the reasons why this line is so low in ASR

Bill
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