Jeebs,
I'm not having the problems here. I attempted to give you the benefit of my 50 years of handicapping experience and suggest an alternative way of looking at these things.
If your methods work, that is great and I congratulate you. If not then maybe some introspection and reevaluation is called for.
I have struggled to make money at this hobby for more years than I like to admit to myself. A little over 4 years ago I found the Hat Check Blog and I have studied it exhaustively since. I finally understand how a horse race runs and why things I couldn't explain for years happened.
Of course there is an element of chance in any endeavor that requires judgment. But we have the data we have and it is up to each of us to analyze it in a fashion that will be correct more often than not.
Here's a race that makes my point but it requires some local knowledge.
The Run Up distance in a turf mile is 150ft. The Run Up distance in a 7.5f race is over 260ft. The Run Up distance at 8.5f is approximately 140ft.
I will not use a 7.5f race in a mile or longer turf race. It is not comparable. It skews the fractions toward early.
The likely leader is the #6 horse and would be in the lead or lapped on the leader at the first call. Yet there are several OTE horses that have F1 velocities faster. That was your question right?
If you do not slow all the other horses down to the F1 POR of the #6, you lose this race.
I use all the lines in a horses pps to find the right line that is suitable for this Match Up. Upon further review if I have had to take a deep line on a horse and I determine he will not run back to that today, out he goes.
This was my work up of the race (I used 100% DTV for this race)
There's the trifecta in the top 3. I wager from the Segment screen.
The shipper is the wild card while he has never won on the lead, those FG races are at 8.5f but since his best races have come as a P or SP, I would assume he will be behind the #6 and have to catch him. This race favors the #6, note the ESP of his races "L". This is an example of a S horse that runs on the lead and since his connections found the right levels and starting pushing the horse to the lead early I believe they will do that today. Total Energy is relatively close.
I have no investment in your success or failure or how you handicap. But you asked the question.
Good Luck