Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - When the "E's" F1 velocities are worse than an "OTE"...h

Jeebs · 04-11-2017, 11:12 AM

Thanks Mike and Mark for your remarks.

When I was a neophyte with the Methodology (circa 2006-07) using Colt Cannon's Race Prophet and the late Bob Pitlak's version of Phase III, I would often encounter OTE runners with an F1 advantage over the Early runners - and in my naivety, treat those runners as if they would run Early. Needless to say, I lost more than won in those particular cases. Eventually, I smarted up and shifted more towards applying run style analysis in conjunction with velocities. However, trying to quantify how the OTE runner with faster F1's would do against the Early runner or runners in today's F1 was - and admittedly still is - confusing to me.

Run style analysis is by nature, a case-by-case basis judgment call, because of the dynamic nature of both the horse and the race itself. As much as RDSS, Brisnet PPs and various handicapping software attempt to "automate" the process, it is never going to be 100% perfect. The old "horses are animals, not machines" axiom comes to mind. I no longer worry about "what if Horse A gets sent today?" when I handicap a race, because what actually happens once the gates spring open is beyond my control. I can only work with - and make judgment calls with - the data that I have at my disposal. I have confidence in my ability to assess a horse's likely running style, but as if anything, nothing works 100% of the time.

As far as the "short answer" of "better line selection" is concerned, I respectfully disagree with the premise that an OTE shouldn't be given a line where their F1 velocity is faster than the Early runner or runners. In the traditional sense, if the most comparable line for an OTE runner happens to be the last line with a faster PoR/PoH F1 velocity than the comparable line of the Early runner or runners in the race, so be it. The line should (in theory anyway) attempt to quantify a horse's ability in a comparable situation. Unfortunately, utilizing the "Segments" or "Velocity Pace of Horse" screens for a "visual" match-up in this circumstance will prove to be futile if your run styles have a high degree of accuracy.

In this case, I would gather the key questions would be 1) will the faster OTE runner run to the (in this case, slower) ability of the E's it is facing? or 2) with the presence of a faster OTE runner in the field, will the E's have to work even harder up front so that they can attempt to counteract the ability of the OTE runner at later points of call?

04-11-2017, 11:12 AM	#4
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Thanks Mike and Mark for your remarks. When I was a neophyte with the Methodology (circa 2006-07) using Colt Cannon's Race Prophet and the late Bob Pitlak's version of Phase III, I would often encounter OTE runners with an F1 advantage over the Early runners - and in my naivety, treat those runners as if they would run Early. Needless to say, I lost more than won in those particular cases. Eventually, I smarted up and shifted more towards applying run style analysis in conjunction with velocities. However, trying to quantify how the OTE runner with faster F1's would do against the Early runner or runners in today's F1 was - and admittedly still is - confusing to me. Run style analysis is by nature, a case-by-case basis judgment call, because of the dynamic nature of both the horse and the race itself. As much as RDSS, Brisnet PPs and various handicapping software attempt to "automate" the process, it is never going to be 100% perfect. The old "horses are animals, not machines" axiom comes to mind. I no longer worry about "what if Horse A gets sent today?" when I handicap a race, because what actually happens once the gates spring open is beyond my control. I can only work with - and make judgment calls with - the data that I have at my disposal. I have confidence in my ability to assess a horse's likely running style, but as if anything, nothing works 100% of the time. As far as the "short answer" of "better line selection" is concerned, I respectfully disagree with the premise that an OTE shouldn't be given a line where their F1 velocity is faster than the Early runner or runners. In the traditional sense, if the most comparable line for an OTE runner happens to be the last line with a faster PoR/PoH F1 velocity than the comparable line of the Early runner or runners in the race, so be it. The line should (in theory anyway) attempt to quantify a horse's ability in a comparable situation. Unfortunately, utilizing the "Segments" or "Velocity Pace of Horse" screens for a "visual" match-up in this circumstance will prove to be futile if your run styles have a high degree of accuracy. In this case, I would gather the key questions would be 1) will the faster OTE runner run to the (in this case, slower) ability of the E's it is facing? or 2) with the presence of a faster OTE runner in the field, will the E's have to work even harder up front so that they can attempt to counteract the ability of the OTE runner at later points of call?