Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Energy -9/6/17-PID race 6

Mitch44 · 09-08-2017, 06:04 AM

Hi papajohn3yimes,

Happy your doing well with your betting. I'm not a wager-cap bettor per say but I do look for overlays. I tend to stick with my two best horses as keys in my betting. I do include my 3rd choice if its going off at very good odds. I understand your point with those very short odds top picks. A valid question always is how can I make money out of this race? I don't like spending 60 or 70% of a bet on such horses, the risk reward is just pitiful. There are 3 options: 1. pass on the very low odds horse and play the 2nd choice and the 3rd choice if your getting good odds such as 8-1( smaller bet in any race.) 2. look at the Ex, payoffs and ask is there a good ex. payoff with the favorite and one of my other top 4 contenders.(after 5, counting the fav your just guessing). Again eliminate those 8 & $10 ridiculous low payoffs. The public goes overboard on the top two horses and thus hammer those Ex, combinations and most the time they fail to run 1 2. There are terrific Ex, payoffs such as 25 or $35 bucks with the very low odds favorite. and # 3. the same with the DD if you have a DD play. This EX or DD shouldn't be forced but played with viable contenders. Many times these very low odds horses are just the best horse and they win. If it is the best horse why try to beat it? Do what you can with it or pass the horse, I wouldn't pass the race and would still bet my 40% on the 2nd best horse. Finally don't bet more than your 60% for your low odds horse on a DD or EX. If your bet is $10 per race than those EX. or DD should only be $6 or $1 DD or EX, , If not than once again your over extending your capital on a low paying favorite and your better off skipping the bet completely. Start wit $10 per race and make larger bets with money won. If you can't do that than you need to find out your problem in contenders or pace line.

The "Doc" loved visual aids because certain people understand things better with them. In teaching different people learn in different ways so that is why he included many visual aids. The very best teaching aid is by actually doing it.

The red and blue sticks on the TPR screen are a visual aid to show how fast or late a horse is and it indicates its running style or ESP. Red indicates an E horse ( E, EP & P) and Blue a S (SP,S & L) ESP. The longer the stick the more E or S the horse is and the shorter the more balance the horse is.

Now here is where the naysayers will enter. These sticks do not necessarily indicate deceleration. As a general rule the larger these sticks are the more deceleration takes place. The key word here is GENERALLY!!! The more class a horse has the longer it can hold its speed so these sticks are deceptive in measuring deceleration. Deceleration is best measured throughout the race such as how does it achieve its 2nd & 3rd FR. & by different compounded factors. Take two E horses that both run very early with large red sticks that are exactly the same. One runs a 3rd Fr of 70 and the other a 76. , well the 76 ran a better 3rd FR and decelerated the least and is the better horse. In the original PMTR book they may have been given a -20 & a -26 to indicate that deceleration. The red or blue sticks don't show this. One can see this by analysis of the differences on the FPS screen or the TPR screen by comparing 3rd FR's. Incidentally by tracks and distances there are parameters that can be obtained where horses can't win and can be eliminated but put in context of the other horses in the race.(matchup) is better. Very large red or blue sticks of a horse should be investigated because they also indicate an unbalanced horse and they do tend be at a disadvantage , not that they can't win but balanced horses are better.

Sorry this stuff is complicated and hard to explain in just a few words.
Lastly lets sum of deceleration. The example I gave above is just one of several ways to measure deceleration. A more comprehensive approach would be to measure deceleration by several ways and more effective. This is done for you with V/DC. I comprehend that factor 100% but over 90% don't. You don't have to understand it , just incorporate it in your handicapping. Drive the dam car and being a mechanic isn't required. You don't have to understand V/DC to use it, it'll up your game.

Mitch44

09-08-2017, 06:04 AM	#20
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Hi papajohn3yimes, Happy your doing well with your betting. I'm not a wager-cap bettor per say but I do look for overlays. I tend to stick with my two best horses as keys in my betting. I do include my 3rd choice if its going off at very good odds. I understand your point with those very short odds top picks. A valid question always is how can I make money out of this race? I don't like spending 60 or 70% of a bet on such horses, the risk reward is just pitiful. There are 3 options: 1. pass on the very low odds horse and play the 2nd choice and the 3rd choice if your getting good odds such as 8-1( smaller bet in any race.) 2. look at the Ex, payoffs and ask is there a good ex. payoff with the favorite and one of my other top 4 contenders.(after 5, counting the fav your just guessing). Again eliminate those 8 & $10 ridiculous low payoffs. The public goes overboard on the top two horses and thus hammer those Ex, combinations and most the time they fail to run 1 2. There are terrific Ex, payoffs such as 25 or $35 bucks with the very low odds favorite. and # 3. the same with the DD if you have a DD play. This EX or DD shouldn't be forced but played with viable contenders. Many times these very low odds horses are just the best horse and they win. If it is the best horse why try to beat it? Do what you can with it or pass the horse, I wouldn't pass the race and would still bet my 40% on the 2nd best horse. Finally don't bet more than your 60% for your low odds horse on a DD or EX. If your bet is $10 per race than those EX. or DD should only be $6 or $1 DD or EX, , If not than once again your over extending your capital on a low paying favorite and your better off skipping the bet completely. Start wit $10 per race and make larger bets with money won. If you can't do that than you need to find out your problem in contenders or pace line. The "Doc" loved visual aids because certain people understand things better with them. In teaching different people learn in different ways so that is why he included many visual aids. The very best teaching aid is by actually doing it. The red and blue sticks on the TPR screen are a visual aid to show how fast or late a horse is and it indicates its running style or ESP. Red indicates an E horse ( E, EP & P) and Blue a S (SP,S & L) ESP. The longer the stick the more E or S the horse is and the shorter the more balance the horse is. Now here is where the naysayers will enter. These sticks do not necessarily indicate deceleration. As a general rule the larger these sticks are the more deceleration takes place. The key word here is GENERALLY!!! The more class a horse has the longer it can hold its speed so these sticks are deceptive in measuring deceleration. Deceleration is best measured throughout the race such as how does it achieve its 2nd & 3rd FR. & by different compounded factors. Take two E horses that both run very early with large red sticks that are exactly the same. One runs a 3rd Fr of 70 and the other a 76. , well the 76 ran a better 3rd FR and decelerated the least and is the better horse. In the original PMTR book they may have been given a -20 & a -26 to indicate that deceleration. The red or blue sticks don't show this. One can see this by analysis of the differences on the FPS screen or the TPR screen by comparing 3rd FR's. Incidentally by tracks and distances there are parameters that can be obtained where horses can't win and can be eliminated but put in context of the other horses in the race.(matchup) is better. Very large red or blue sticks of a horse should be investigated because they also indicate an unbalanced horse and they do tend be at a disadvantage , not that they can't win but balanced horses are better. Sorry this stuff is complicated and hard to explain in just a few words. Lastly lets sum of deceleration. The example I gave above is just one of several ways to measure deceleration. A more comprehensive approach would be to measure deceleration by several ways and more effective. This is done for you with V/DC. I comprehend that factor 100% but over 90% don't. You don't have to understand it , just incorporate it in your handicapping. Drive the dam car and being a mechanic isn't required. You don't have to understand V/DC to use it, it'll up your game. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 09-08-2017 at 06:22 AM.