Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill S · 06-10-2017, 03:29 PM

Chad,
I think the same thing Bill V. said, your taking on too much to start and suffering information overload. I did the same thing initially.....

I'd suggest you start by studying RDSS, learn what it's readouts mean and understand what the 10 analyst panels are telling you and how each one feeds information to the next. Ted has a video up that explains that. These are your tools and a craftsman must understand how to use his tools.

Next practice paceline selection. I use the best of last three comparable via the perceptor. But don't do it blindly. Use common sense. Howard Sartin wrote a lot about it.

There is a thread here Jeebs started called "Handicapping Blind - Using PoH/TPR/Primary screens". Go read that thread, especially the stuff that Mitch44 wrote in it about paceline selection and energy vs visual running style.

and finally start keeping records of what factors are best for the track you play broken down by surface and distance. I find that even though we have all these factors Dr. Sartin gave us, not all of them work equally for a particular track/distance/surface. I work during the day so I play night tracks, primarily Penn National. What I see from my records are that there is a subset of factors that are highly predictive for each distance and surface. Like for 6f dirt right now at Penn the most predictive I'm seeing is TE, FW, VDC, and TS. Approx 75 percent of the horses that rate in the top 2 of these factors in BL/BL win at this distance. Now I move over to 1 mile 70 and the top factors change to EPR, CPR, FX, and TS. They change based on distance and surface. I don't know why but they do. I track a total of 14 factors per race, but a subset of 3 or 4 rise to the top. The only way your going to find this out is to keep records.

You can read in the follow up a lot where Dr Sartin used to complain about how people always asked him what are the best factors to watch. His answer was always the same. . . . "What your records tell you they are for your track...."

Anyway keep it simple at first and the other stuff will come in time.

06-10-2017, 03:29 PM	#15
Bill S AlwNW3X Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Bensalem PA Posts: 33	Chad, I think the same thing Bill V. said, your taking on too much to start and suffering information overload. I did the same thing initially..... I'd suggest you start by studying RDSS, learn what it's readouts mean and understand what the 10 analyst panels are telling you and how each one feeds information to the next. Ted has a video up that explains that. These are your tools and a craftsman must understand how to use his tools. Next practice paceline selection. I use the best of last three comparable via the perceptor. But don't do it blindly. Use common sense. Howard Sartin wrote a lot about it. There is a thread here Jeebs started called "Handicapping Blind - Using PoH/TPR/Primary screens". Go read that thread, especially the stuff that Mitch44 wrote in it about paceline selection and energy vs visual running style. and finally start keeping records of what factors are best for the track you play broken down by surface and distance. I find that even though we have all these factors Dr. Sartin gave us, not all of them work equally for a particular track/distance/surface. I work during the day so I play night tracks, primarily Penn National. What I see from my records are that there is a subset of factors that are highly predictive for each distance and surface. Like for 6f dirt right now at Penn the most predictive I'm seeing is TE, FW, VDC, and TS. Approx 75 percent of the horses that rate in the top 2 of these factors in BL/BL win at this distance. Now I move over to 1 mile 70 and the top factors change to EPR, CPR, FX, and TS. They change based on distance and surface. I don't know why but they do. I track a total of 14 factors per race, but a subset of 3 or 4 rise to the top. The only way your going to find this out is to keep records. You can read in the follow up a lot where Dr Sartin used to complain about how people always asked him what are the best factors to watch. His answer was always the same. . . . "What your records tell you they are for your track...." Anyway keep it simple at first and the other stuff will come in time.