[Tim Y]

Sample error. Two years ago I listened to a lecture on line about statistical analysis and it hit home. The lecturer pointed out that looking first at the BEST most outstanding effort (like Frosted, an known in and outer might get you to select), you are getting a skewed idea of what the animal is capable of since we all know the basic statistical principle of returning to the MEAN. One stand out performance is the OUTLIER, not the norm.

The best actuarials (the principle evaluations that insurance companies use to access liabilities) are based upon HUGE samples. The Theory of Large Numbers requires that a large database be evaluated before the results are representative of real life.

We do not have this luxury so we have to find a way around it.

In the Speculator program, there is an area called the Long Shot detector which evaluated the pace of race of each horse. I found it best for Match Up reasons to find similar paces of race (make the horse's be under similar pace pressures before evaluating them). Find several appropriate lines and use them, by themselves, to see how each horse handled that pace of race, particularly asking the question: DID any of these efforts push the horse out of it NORMAL ESP status? Then go back and you compare the other contenders to these lines.

I would try never to wager on horses that did not show at least two similar efforts coming into today's contest.