Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

seattlesnake · 11-23-2009, 03:51 PM

I also think along those lines re: poly2dirt and yes some poly # seem to be overated and does not transfer similar ratings when running to dirt but i tend to be more lenient when the a runner has had only a few races and does not have an established PP to show a like or dislike for a specific surface/dist.

In Fast Deposit's case we can see that he was well meant 1st time out based on his workout pattern prior to his initial race where he finished only 4+ lengths behind and earned a rating in poly higher than anybody that has run in todays event.
Attachment 18176

I assumed that his initial effort (80.3/88.3) may have affected his next effort vs. similar (75.9 EPR)... could be the track condition also....and finished up the track... so the money shot was the drop down to the MC15 where he was close in the first 2 calls (85.3) similar to his poly effort which was encouraging but produced a dismal result when fading badly.

So the question is will he be able to re-produce some LPR to run down the contenders ( 81.2-81.4 LPR's) in todays race or does he really run that bad on the dirt at Haw....?

He has had 58 days to acclimate and recover from his initial effort...3works/2races at Haw..showed sign of improvement with a new EPR in last...all he has to do now is reproduce a good LPR above 81.4 which is something that most of the runners in this race has never done before. So he does not really have to run a huge LPR like he did on poly...not necessarily but its nice to know @ 26-1 that he is capable in hopes that the EPR's battle it out and set it up for FD's superior LPR rating.. did he run an 88.3 LPR like he did on poly ...probably not.. but did he really have to?

11-23-2009, 03:51 PM	#9
seattlesnake Grade 1 Join Date: May 2009 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 304	Poly2Dirt I also think along those lines re: poly2dirt and yes some poly # seem to be overated and does not transfer similar ratings when running to dirt but i tend to be more lenient when the a runner has had only a few races and does not have an established PP to show a like or dislike for a specific surface/dist. In Fast Deposit's case we can see that he was well meant 1st time out based on his workout pattern prior to his initial race where he finished only 4+ lengths behind and earned a rating in poly higher than anybody that has run in todays event. Attachment 18176 I assumed that his initial effort (80.3/88.3) may have affected his next effort vs. similar (75.9 EPR)... could be the track condition also....and finished up the track... so the money shot was the drop down to the MC15 where he was close in the first 2 calls (85.3) similar to his poly effort which was encouraging but produced a dismal result when fading badly. So the question is will he be able to re-produce some LPR to run down the contenders ( 81.2-81.4 LPR's) in todays race or does he really run that bad on the dirt at Haw....? He has had 58 days to acclimate and recover from his initial effort...3works/2races at Haw..showed sign of improvement with a new EPR in last...all he has to do now is reproduce a good LPR above 81.4 which is something that most of the runners in this race has never done before. So he does not really have to run a huge LPR like he did on poly...not necessarily but its nice to know @ 26-1 that he is capable in hopes that the EPR's battle it out and set it up for FD's superior LPR rating.. did he run an 88.3 LPR like he did on poly ...probably not.. but did he really have to? Last edited by seattlesnake; 08-06-2010 at 11:42 AM.