Thread: Track Variants
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Old 09-13-2017, 04:28 PM   #3
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Jeebs;


I'm convinced using a combination of Pars and adjusting variants from Bris can be disastrous. Pars are never up to date and the matchup supersedes them.


With Bris as you say the variant is included within their pace numbers. BTW I used them for at least 15 years and their very good. However they won't beat RDSS because the adjustments for different distances aren't there. I. g. When selecting lines for a race such as 6F you'll have some lines of 5.0,5.5, 6.5 and 7F which isn't an unusual situation but rather the norm. The Bris pace rates that race and does not adjust that race to todays race distance. Nothing can beat that but RDSS and Sartin's proven formulas over years of research and thousands of races. Therefore without these kind of adjustments attempting to extract an accurate variant from their numbers is a effort in futility. Ditto for extracting or projecting distances from cutbacks and stretch outs.


Now I can do much of that in my head but its prone to mistakes whereas the computer is never wrong if programed correctly. By going back to Sartin I no longer have to do that which is much easier. Additionally with RDSS you get other proven factors that don't exist within Bris, factors that can really up your game.

With your excel program which is excellent your trying to duplicate what RDSS does, far too much work that will not outperform RDSS. Much simpler to pick a line and let RDSS do it all. Plus you get all those other numerous adjustments as I noted and more in addition to factors that if the starting point is faulty than resulting factors are faulty. In this case your starting point of pars and the variant is faulty. The best thing here is you realize it.


That's not to say a better mouse trap can't be built because it can,just not in this incidence. You may want to look up Meridian Variant that may help as far as a variant but all those other adjustments remain a problem.


Mitch44
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