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Old 08-10-2019, 08:27 AM   #1
rdiam
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
Win Betting Guide

I have put together this Win Betting Guide as a template to help structure win bets. Use as you see fit:

To start, it is important to narrow a race down to 3-4 win contenders. If you can't do that, you or your software do not understand the race will enough to bet.

If all 4 win contenders are priced at 5-1 or higher => PASS, as there is something going on with the race that is creating that structure (i.e., a heavily bet favorite) and you or your software are generally not that smart.

Minimum odds levels for "value" bets: top tier >= 5-2, second tier >= 4-1, third tier >= 6-1, fourth tier >= 8-1

Structure for "selection oriented" bets:

If your top 3 tiers are all priced at 4-1 or higher => bet all 3

If your top 2 tiers are priced at 3-1 or higher => bet both

If your top tier is priced at 5-2 AND your second tier is priced at 4-1 or higher => bet both

If your top tier is priced between 8-5 and 2-1 AND there is a horse priced at 7-2 or lower NOT in your top 3-4 Win contender list => bet your top tier

If your top tier is priced between 4-5 and 3-2 AND there is a horse priced at 3-1 or lower NOT in your top 3-4 Win contender list => bet your top tier

If your top tier horse is priced below 4-5 => PASS on win bets for this horse unless you are getting a rebate of 8% or more

This approach tries to incorporate the current realities of racing today with short fields and rebate syndicates creating an environment where favorites are winning close to 40% and top 2 favorites winning close to 60%. You should end up betting a mix of favorites/second favorites with a smattering of longer priced horses.

Richard
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