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Dave;
You ask some very good questions and obviously are doing some research. Old research can get a person into trouble because the concepts of Sartin evolved very much over the years.
With the fulcrum as with anything you'll find believers and non believers I'm in the non-believer camp. Jim Bradshaw, an icon of much of this specifically stated "I don't believe in the fulcrum." Nor did Sartin. That has always been good enough for me. I also consider it a waste of valuable handicapping time. By picking proper contenders and pace lines one gets the true match-up and the program figures all that out.
I also follow Sartin guidelines of picking the best line of last 3 at a comparable surface and distance. Of those lines I use the Preceptor which outperforms human judgement as to which line is correct. The Preceptor is one of Sartin later tools he came up with prior to passing. Essentially he figured why not rate every line with the computer to find the best one. Then took it a step further by rating each line with the 7 Primary Factors against itself. Note: don't use the preceptor for final decisions. There are a few better factors which consider the match-up etc. that outperform it. But for selection of pace lines its the ultimate bomb of a tool.
As far as pace lines there are many times the last line is correct and many times it isn't. Those that rigidly lock themselves into always selecting the last line will win races and lose races because of it. I.e. 3 yr. old tend to improve and mature as the season progresses, whereas older have already reached maturity. The last line is more of an indication of form more than it is the correct line. One would have to do a complete study on that to actually see it from the results. Sartin has already done this which is why he says;"best of last 3 at a comparable dis. & surface." It flat out produces more winners and better prices.
Just looking at your first screen shot and assuming the lines were correct my contenders would have been the 3.5.6.& 7 based on analysis of the TPR screen.
One of your best questions was "Is this normal for the horse? This is a question I frequently ask. To get its true running style and other things. The match up will cause a horse to get out of its comfort zone and run counter to its true style causing it not to win and or run a bad race. I don't want to pick a line that is counter to its true running style.
This is my opinion and the naysayers can have theirs. Some just never progress and its like wanting to remain in the first grade because you like the teacher.
Onward to a diploma,
Mitch44
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