Thread: Turf Routes
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:55 AM   #6
Bill Lyster
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
This stat sounds contradictory, but I tend to think its an unrecognized feature of turf racing.

Since the start of DMR and SAR there have been 34 turf races of all distances.

Pace of Horse F1 top 4 ranked horses have won 27 races (79%)

SAme stats for CBL (Computed beaten lengths on the Segments screen)

At Saratoga so far 12 of the 16 races have been won by top 3 POH, F1 horses. Its not the same at DMR.

I have SA stats from 2013 for all turf races where these factors show about the same within a couple of points for top 3 (but I cannot tell if the lines were best of last 3 comparable or not). They are based on best of 3 comparable for the current meetings. At DMR 18 winners have AVERAGED 14.1/1 win odds?
What I meant to say about DMR is that its about the same as far as top 4 POH F1, but the number of winners at DMR that are top 3 POH F1 falls off sharply. This probably accounts for some of the big prices at DMR compared to SAR where the average winning odds are 5.3/1.
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