Preakness Marathon?
Most years if you handicapped the Derby the Preakness was already handicapped as well, but this year none of the top 4 Derby finishers are coming back. But still there are a few returnees from the Derby and maybe some new blood to consider. I recall that The Hat considered marathons at 10 furlongs and longer, but this method has worked well for years even though the race is only 9.5 furlongs.
Improbable has run 4-4-1 off of a 136.1 mile split and 6-6-2 off of a 112.5 3/4 split in the Derby.
Warrior's Charge ran 1-1-1 off of a 136.2 with a 6F split of 111.5 with lengths to spare (open leads in several previous races, (even further in front than Maximum Security's races, BTW).
Always Mining has run 1-1-1 off of a 136.3 with a 6f split of 113.0 and 3-1-1 off of a 112.7 split.
Bodexpress has run 2-2-2 off of a 136.3 mile and 112.9 6f time. I think he was impacted somewhat in the Derby and his 2nd in his previous race shows he can run in graded company, despite his maiden status.
Anothertwistoffate ran a 134.8 mile while running 3-4-3 to the stretch call vs a 112.9 6f call; and another mile in 137.7 running 3-4-2 against a 109.6 6f call.
I think Warrior's Charge and Always Mining go to the lead with WC surviving; Improbable and Bodexpress right behind and then Anothertwistoffate behind them.
So Improbable at 5/2 and Bodexpress at 20/1 on top with maybe a wire job by Warrior's Charge at 12/1 with Anothertwistoffate the third pressing type that might crack the top 3.
good luck to you all.
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