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Old 08-29-2016, 10:30 PM   #2
DanBoals
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
Interesting Race

I ran the race on RDSS, which I highly recommend if you play more than $100 a month it will pay for itself, and I got the top 3 contenders as the 6, the 3 and the 1. I posted the readout below.

The 6 was at odds of 1-1 I think, so I would either have to look elsewhere or pass the race. Since his last race was hard fought, led by a head in the stretch and at the finish, he just might bounce this race. It was only 15 days ago, and he doesn't show a work. If you get the Brisnet readout, you can look at Carla Gaines record for 2nd off layoff and repeat wins. I would include him in exotics probably, but not for the win, just because the odds are way too low for the risk.

The 3 is an interesting horse, but also a bit dangerous as a bet. I am going back almost a year for his paceline. My reasoning being that this is his second race after a layoff and the last time he ran after a layoff he did pretty well, also, I kind of want to give him the benefit of the doubt because of his class drop. So one of my win bets would be on the 3 at 13-1.

My final contender, the 1 is a pretty good bet if the race goes late, he seems like a lock if that happens. He has number 1 LPR and HID and is tied for 2 CPR. I like the fact that this is his 3rd race after a layoff and that he has improved in the last two races. At 5-2, he barely qualifies for a bet, but he would be my second win bet.

The rest of the horses :

The 4 I am unsure of, had to use his 2nd race back which was at GP in the slop, so it's hard to count on what he will do, big unknown. Had I used his last line at 5 on the turf at Del Mar, he would have been a contender. I don't like using turf lines or slop lines when today is neither of those, so this horse is a question mark for me.

The 7 only hits the top 3 in FX, so he is out.

The 2 doesn't have any top 3 hits, so he is out.

That is my analysis of the race, done before I looked at the results. I would have more than likely passed this race because I didn't know what the 6 or the 4 would do, and I can handle one unknown, but two usually warrants a pass.

Anyways, that is my 2 cents worth,

Dan
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