There was a race from TP today that I thought was worthwhile posting about. There were a couple of things I thought were interesting.
I’m not going to elaborate on each horse . Most of you probably already know how I choose contenders and lines, but I will talk about one particular horse….the #3. But before I do that, there is one other thing I thought I should mention, not just about the #3 horse, but every horse in every race you look at, and that is the
“auto RS” designation.
Below is a screen shot of where the “RS” designation appears.
If you are not looking at this RS designation and then looking at the horse's PP's for your own verification of the RS, then you are making a mistake!
Now let’s take a look at the #3 horse. The “auto RS” designation says this horse is an “S7”. The “7” is your first clue that something is wrong! The “7” represents the QUIRIN Early Speed Points and sustained horses just don’t get a “7”. Now let's look at the horse's entire PP's.
You can see that in every race where this horse has shown any sign of life, it attempted to run early, whether it was successful or not. Therefore, what you should do is click on the
“E” button I have noted and change the “RS” designation to an “E”. This horse is an EARLY horse.
Staying with this screen shot, how many of you would dismiss this horse out of hand for its’ poor performance in its’ last race? The horse didn’t even finish! In fact, it was pulled up!
Sometimes handicapping requires a little extra investigation. How many of you would click on the “TRIP” tab to see if there was any information there that might help? Ok, so maybe a few would and a few wouldn’t, but all of you should. And when you click on the trip tab and the comment says “bled, eased up”, what does that mean to you? Here’s what it should mean to you. Here's the screen shot.
How many of you would like to try and run while blood is pouring out of your nose? I don’t think there is anyone. Well, that is what happens to horses when the comment says “bled” or makes any reference to a horse “bleeding”. It is caused by the blood vessels in the nose rupturing. It’s no wonder that this horse was “eased up”. OK, so how does that help you?
Is there anyone reading this that has never heard of LASIX? Just in case there is, lasix is a drug that is given to horses that “bled”. Now, there is a couple of things I can tell you about lasix.
1 – it helps horses that have the bleeding problem.
2 – it is not as effective in high humidity, such as when it rains.
3 – it can mask other drugs.
There was a time, years ago, when “medication” such as lasix did not appear in the Racing Form. The public was not provided with this information, unless you knew where to look for it.
When I use to go to the track, my first stop was the Racing Secretary’s office, because a list of all horses running on lasix that day (or night) was posted there. At least this is the way it worked in NJ and PA. I would make a note of those horses on my program for use later on when I was handicapping the races. The “rule” at the time was, as a result of the first incident of bleeding, the horse was required to be off for no less than 30 days. As a result of the second incident of bleeding, the horse was required to be off for no less than 180 days. Upon the third incident of bleeding, the horse was ruled off the track. Finally, this information became available in the Racing Form. Eventually, the rules, as I just mentioned them, were completely changed, making them much more lenient. Ok, back to the #3 horse.
So how would I handle this horse?
I would, and did, put this horse in off line 2. Since today’s race is for NW2L, using the maiden win is the correct call. We don’t have to be concerned over the horse’s last race, now that we understand what happen on the day of its’ last race and what will happen as a result. Meaning, it will get medicated. My point is that the horse should not be dismissed out of hand. If the horse does not become a viable betting prospect off of line 2, we will find that out soon enough.
The next post will show the various screens from this race that I normally post.
I will just point out, that the winner had the best 1st
AND 2nd fraction. Sometimes this is confused with the best 1st fraction and second call. They are two different things.
The 2nd fraction is the point at which presser and sustained horses are generally beginning their moves and in most cases they will have a better 2nd fraction than the horse that has been on the lead. In the case where the horse on the lead is running faster than the horses trying to make up ground from behind the leader, this generally does not bode well for those horses trying to come from off the pace. Just keep that in mind.