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Old 06-07-2020, 05:08 PM   #14
Dorianmode
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Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
I agree with Mitch. I only enter races I capped into my models. I don't enter mdn or 2 yr old races into my data and note races for 3 yr olds only. Like Mitch I'm also a pen and paper guy.
Tim
This is an interesting question, and I agree with this and with what Mitch said. I'm also a pen-and paper guy, but it's altered in a way, as there are too many things that need to be looked at, and the only way for that to happen, for me, is to let Excel do all the numbers, and point me to what it calculates, and to what I have told it to alert me to, when the numbers are exceptional.

The thing I don't do, is enter all races, even the ones I "do" into my data. Some few races defy evaluation, and/or an "outlier" wins. I mark them as such. I want to know how many races of each of the types I look at, "defy" my evaluation ... ie where a totally unexpected horse comes out of nowhere, and wins. It's fairly rare, but I need to deal with that in my break-even eval. It's a way to "write off" a race I missed, re-looked at, and not finding something I should noticed, just move on.

So on each of my race forms, for races I've actually evaluated and bet on, I have a box that asks "enter data ?" It is a big topic in statistics, ... this ... how to deal with "outliers". I leave them out of the data OR at least have a way of being able to select the outliers, to filter them later, as they really do nothing but "cloud up" the picture for the vast majority of races that are not outliers. Keeping a column for "outlier", is easy to put in an Excel record.

You could even make a case for only entering the races which lead YOU to win your bets.

Last edited by Dorianmode; 06-07-2020 at 05:11 PM.
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