Quote:
Originally Posted by partsnut
The favorite ran down my (6) horse in the stretch.
As Bill V. stated: tough race.
However, faint heart never wins the fair lady.
No guts, no glory.
I believe these type of races offer the best opportunity and value.
In this game it's risk versus reward.
I always look to beat the favorite.
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Hi Bill H.
I totally disagree
I was asked to review 2 races yesterday
I pass both of them . Being a two horse better I saved
$8.00 by realizing I was not working, I would have been gambling
Why ? because I did not have a solid opinion on who would win
One of the winners paid $104 Your race winner paid $5.80
and I called that race a pass in the above post
Here are my notes of the $104 dollar winner race
The race was for state bred $5000 Nw2L a bunch of cheap horses
Many of which are long past their maiden wins
H1 Layoff EP No line 1-19 lifetime
H2 No line 20/1 Ml 1-3 lifetime
H3 Sus line 1 1- 7 lifetime
H4 Layoff but rates as best FF last line but not recent
1-16 lifetime
H5 Layoff EP
1-20 lifetime
H6 Layoff E 1-10 lifetime
H7 Line 1 1-9 lifetime
H8 Early Line 1 1-8 lifetime
H9 Early Line 1 1-6 lifetime
H10 No form
1-24 lifetime
I only have pace lines for 4 horses out of 10
3, 7, 8, 9,
The winner was horse 4 the 8 placed the 3 showed
I watch races all day. After every race I look at the winners PP's
Here is the winner. I notice it has the best LPR based on using the last line
form every horse
It ran wel at FG last year but the
long layoff is an issue
Issues and knowing when to fold and pass are like wins
You do it enough and you don't fall so far behind,
that when you win your not just getting back to even.
I only work races were I have determined in my mind that I am able to
identify the true contenders and I have used appropritae pace lines
If as I go threw each horses past performance I have any issues
I note them, Any more than two issues in a race and I pass
I bet one race yesterday. Race 7 from PRX which was my contest race
The payoff was a good return of about $9.20
I picked race 7 because 6.5 furlong races at parx are one of the distance
I do well at 8.3 furlongs is also
But I pass 8 out of every 10 races
at those two distances
Why? because usually there are issues with sprinters and routers
and I find I'm going deep for pacelines or there are no comperable recent
plus lines.
I see nice payoffs at 6,and 7 furlongs and 1 mile at Parx all the time
But I will only work those distance when I have no issues and all my
contenders pacelines are recent plus races from line 1 or 2.
If I have to go to line 3 on more than 3 horses I will pass the race
Here are my notes from the race I won
Its a Start alowance race for NW2L
These are for the most part winners of a recent maiden race
They have had to have raced for a claiming price of $16000 and never won 2 races
H1 p2 line 2 1/10
H2 P2 Line 1 1/2
H3 EP7 line 1 1/7
H4 Layoff Press 1/4
H5 Press4 Line1
1/11
H6 NL 20/1ML 1/2
H7 Early7 Line1 1/6
H8 EP8 line 1 1/1
H9 EP1 Line 1 1/9
F1= 9, 1, 8,
TT= 9, 1, 5
F3 = 5, 2, 8
lots of Early speed nobody has an early advantage
Bet the 5 and 1
I have lines for every horse except #4 and 6
My contenders are 1, 2, 3, 5, 9 they all come from the last 2 pace lines
So I bet $4.00 based on a $2 bet 2 horses
I won $9.60
had I played around with the other two races
I would have bet $12 and won $9.60
Here is the winner of PRX7
So all my win would have done was get me back to near even
I see many people who would agree with you
and just go for prices in races like FG2
I am not saying I'm right and they are wrong
All I know is I see lots of scratch off lottery tickets
and the racinos have more people playing gambline machines
and table games than horse wagers
So have fun and
may you say
" I Had That Horse " often
GS
Bill