Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless
FTL
This I feel is the one of the most important questions to ask but
not sure if you have answer for it
How do you decide if to pass or play a race?
Bill feel free to comment as well
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There is more than one reason to pass a race.
You find a race where there are no “unknown factors”. You are able to get good pacelines for several horses in the race. Those horses with no lines, because they have no form, are eliminated as non-contenders. You enter your contenders into your program and get your two horses to bet. If the odds on one or both of your horses is too low….PASS THE RACE. What are odds that are “too low”?
There is the obvious, such as your two horses are 4/5 and 2/1. Beyond that, it is up to each individual to set their own minimums.
If I remember correctly, Doc’s advice was, if you encounter a race with two or more “unknown factors”...PASS THE RACE. What is an “unknown factor”? Here are some examples.
A maiden race where there are two or more first time starters.
A race being run on the turf and there are two or more horses with no turf lines.
A race being run on the dirt and there are two or more horses with no dirt lines.
A race at a sprint distance and there are two or more horses with no sprint lines.
A race at a route distance and there are two or more horses with no route lines.
These are some examples for you to begin with. My best advice is to pay attention to the races you handicap. Draw some conclusions of your own on every race you either play or pass. After the race, evaluate your thoughts prior to the race to those after the race. Ask yourself, “did I make the right decision?” Don’t reach any final conclusions until you have done many, many races. You can’t let “this race” dictate what you are going to do in the “next race”. You will need many, many decisions to base your conclusions on.