Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

The Pook · 09-05-2015, 11:21 AM

Saratoga Race 10

I have four Earlies in here. 2,4,6,8 with the (4) a need to lead. A lot of early pressure. This is why I chose this race. I think the 2 (Liams Map) goes for the lead but with more pressure than last time. He ran faster than he needed to and gave it up. He didn't have many competitors going for the front with him. May be worse this time?

The 8 can run OTE also and can handle the projected pace. The 7 can handle the pace and runs OTE. Positionally I like the 8.

I had an interesting PM conversation with (For The Lead) this week in which he pointed out to me the low win rates (5%) of horses coming off layoffs of over 90 days garnered from his database. That makes me take pause on backing the 8. However I think that applies less to stakes horses and 8 is at only 127 days. Also 8 has won from 234 days. I may have to eat my words.

So I really hate to go against Liams Map and he may hang on and fry me this time but from a Matchup perspective I think things have changed for Liams.

Chime in and disagree including (For The Lead) and throw up your own perspective. Thats what this is all about.

I land on the 7 and 8..

7,8 for the WIN

Pook

09-05-2015, 11:21 AM	#16
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,535	Saratoga Race 10 I have four Earlies in here. 2,4,6,8 with the (4) a need to lead. A lot of early pressure. This is why I chose this race. I think the 2 (Liams Map) goes for the lead but with more pressure than last time. He ran faster than he needed to and gave it up. He didn't have many competitors going for the front with him. May be worse this time? The 8 can run OTE also and can handle the projected pace. The 7 can handle the pace and runs OTE. Positionally I like the 8. I had an interesting PM conversation with (For The Lead) this week in which he pointed out to me the low win rates (5%) of horses coming off layoffs of over 90 days garnered from his database. That makes me take pause on backing the 8. However I think that applies less to stakes horses and 8 is at only 127 days. Also 8 has won from 234 days. I may have to eat my words. So I really hate to go against Liams Map and he may hang on and fry me this time but from a Matchup perspective I think things have changed for Liams. Chime in and disagree including (For The Lead) and throw up your own perspective. Thats what this is all about. I land on the 7 and 8.. 7,8 for the WIN Pook Last edited by The Pook; 09-05-2015 at 11:25 AM.