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Turf Paradise 9th at 1-7/8 miles on turf
Not much speed here. The 4 has been 3rd or better at the stretch call is 7 of its last 10 races. The 3 and 7 are next best at 3/10.
Not many in here look like they can get the distance. The 1 finished 4th in its last an 11 furlong race on turf; finished 3-3-2 to the stretch, finishing 4th by 1.25 lengths. This race is tandem with the 7.
3 won its only race over a mile 9 back; very consistent with 8/10 on board. Been racing as 20,000 claimer.
4 looks closest to pace/or he might be the pace. Fairly close up for OC 20 in last; 2nd back at 1.5 miles turf finished 2nd
7 finished 2nd by neck in 11 furlong truf race, tandem with #1; closed 8-8-7
9 Been racing turf miles at SA for c25000, but at bottom of PPs has 2 races at 1.25 mile turf and 2 at 1.5 mile on turf;
I don't like to rely on mile times from mile races unless they are supported by similar times from longer races. So the times I will mention are from longer races from anywhere in the PPs.
1 - 140.4: 3-3-2-4th -- 6th best mile time
3 - 139.7: 6-5-3 -1st -- 4th best mile time
4 - 140.0: 4-4-3 -2nd -- 5th best mile time
4 - 139.0: 3-2-2 -2nd -- 2nd best mile time
7 - 141.0: 8-8-7 -2nd -- 8th best mile time
9 - 136.2: 8-8-7 -5th -- 1st best mile time
9 - 139.2: 5-6-7 -4th -- 3rd best mile time
9 - 140.4: 6-5-5 - 3rd -- 6th best mile time
Concerns: the 9 with the best mile time and 3rd best has not been closing well lately; has most apparent experience at 10 furlongs +.
The 4 has 2 of the top 5 times and is likely to be closest to lead; Hat said that P type getting lead will be in unfamilair place and will find a way to lose.
The 1 probably will not be as close to pace as last time - last time went against 115 6f pace - should be faster tomorrow. The 7 might do a little better than 1, having finished 2nd in tandem with 1 last out.
I am taking the 3 to over come the 4 to win; I think that the 9 is a contender to win, but lack of closing is a concern, except that in last outs he was not closing vs. 134.6 mile time. the softer pace makes this my 2nd win choice, but could be low priced.
Exacta 3-4-9 box.
Good luck guys,
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