Quote:
Originally Posted by gl45
Bill,
looking how you use RDSS I see 6 factors plus the sticks which are the differences between EPR and FFR. I have a question for you.....
do you know how many times the race winner was rank 1 in each of the factors, or for that matter ranked 2, or 3 or 4.
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Hi GL45
No I could not tell you because I never modeled it. I can not dig up some stats forhow often the 1 "stick" wins or # 2 or what ever.
The #1 Stick simply means the horse ran more unbalanced
then the #2 "stick" horse
Rather than ranking the sticks , Which Doc never did by the way , We were instructed in the follow up
to look for parameters of what wins at your track based on
distance and surface and competition level .
Look at it this way , using the 3 horse Red Rei Rei
Lets say it is 145 days ago, Last Dec21st. You are handicapping race 3, a 6.5 furlong race for CL15 N4-L
Line 4 ( which would be line 1 on this day ) Line 1 looks like a solid win line, Its recent, Its a + pace line. It fits this horses running style which is Early,
Now lets look at the stick. It is a big red +22
It probably would be the #1 or maybe the #2 biggest stick in the analysis of all the other pace lines you used
for the other horses in the race,
Now the question really is this, Is +22 too early ?
in todays match up ?
My experience of my doing so many races over my Sartin years from Parx is, Yes 22 is too unbalanced early. The 95 EPR is great but this horse won a race with a 73 LPR ! which is very low ( anything under 80 )
usually means too much deceleration and a loss,
95 EPR minus 73 LPR means a +22 Early balance, so you get a +22 stick
So in todays race will the match up allow a repeat
of a unbalance early pace line, against a much higher class level of competition , from 10,000 to 15,000
and also non winners of 4 life instead of non winner of
3 life -
In the Match Up, are there other Earlys who will do nothing but make the 3 horse run even more unbalanced early?
That is what happened in the Dec 21 race.
Red Rei Rei ran a faster EPR of 96.4 but It caused it to run a terrible 43.9 LPR and lose by 30 lengths.
So It does little to say the #1 biggest stick ( best ?)
wins a certain percent of races, What matters is ,
what range of early or middle or late balance win most often.
I would say in a range of +12 to +15
and anything over 20 is probably too early for this kind of race at Parx
A horse with less than + 5 had better be very close
in EPR LPR balance or else they will be too far back
and then need the better EPR to collapse.