Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25

PeteC · 11-25-2011, 11:46 AM

Good morning…

Projected Pace: #10 looks like the early speed here. Since it comes out of sprints, I went back to the 9F Saratoga line (5) and used the 47.7 111.4 for today’s pace.

Early and OTE: I labeled 10 as early and the 12 as E/P (primarily because of how it always seems to break 1st. All the others are pure OTE to me. After looking at Line 5 for #10 I decided this race will run OTE.

Match-Up:

My final OTE contenders were the 6,7,11 and 12 but I ended up picking the 11. Although they’re at different surfaces and distances, I see 4 wins against similar to today’s pace or better, including once in the Churchill slop.

11-25-2011, 11:46 AM	#9
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Good morning… Projected Pace: #10 looks like the early speed here. Since it comes out of sprints, I went back to the 9F Saratoga line (5) and used the 47.7 111.4 for today’s pace. Early and OTE: I labeled 10 as early and the 12 as E/P (primarily because of how it always seems to break 1st. All the others are pure OTE to me. After looking at Line 5 for #10 I decided this race will run OTE. Match-Up: My final OTE contenders were the 6,7,11 and 12 but I ended up picking the 11. Although they’re at different surfaces and distances, I see 4 wins against similar to today’s pace or better, including once in the Churchill slop.