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Hello wcgreene;
If you notice the Total Energy numbers are pretty much the same. Bill is correct in that its how the variant is applied. In Total Energy its applied to all 3 Fractions and in TPR its applied to only the Second Call and 3rd FR. or 2 points rather than 3 places.
It really depends on how the variants are applied to the SC and 3rd FR, such as it could be a straight 60% to SC and 40% to 3rd FR. Which by the way is not as accurate as it could be. Without knowing how it actually applied(only Ted can answer that) its hard to say if it could be improved upon.
This horse has never ran on turf in his present chart which is why its dirt rating are higher for the dirt race, that is APV and CR are higher for the dirt Race. You'll also notice that his morning line is lower for the dirt race than the turf race because he must prove his ability to run on turf.
Without accessing the contenders for both races its hard to say which is more advantageous for him to run in or the weaker field. I would suspect the trainer will opt for the dirt race but then again perhaps he has worked the horse on the turf and knows the horse could improve on the turf. There is risk reward there with a M/L of 8-1 but I would have to have more information than appears here to make a decision on a horse that must prove something that he has never done.
Mitch44
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