I happen to have been reading Follow Up #14
This lesson stuck in my mind
From Follow Up 14 page 10
From Doc Q and A article
So I looked and check the APV numbers for
The 5th race at Gold Gate
APV ratings
Horse 1 > 102
Horse 2 Sratch
Horse 3 > 409
Horse 4 Scrach
Horse 5 > 111
Horse 6 > 149
Horse 7 > 87
Horse 8 > 186 20/1 off 225 days Pace line is 0 race !
Horse 9 > 137
The 3 has a wild
409 but the 8 also is very high compared to the field.
The 8 is 20/1 ML and off over 200 days
The first thing I thought of was follow up 14
Should I look closer at this horse?
Pace lines don't look too positive after doing my + (+) or O's
Look at the workouts. They are awesome, Evenly spaced and fast
5 furlongs.
With the 2nd highest APV and those works, I felt okay to use line 3
Even though it is not a + or (+) race But It is at today's track and comparable distance and surface
I am not a fan of 5-furlong races. I like to change horses with 5-furlong pacelines to 5.5 furlongs and run the race at 5.5 furlongs. I need to do this with old programs so I used KGEN and Thromation.
I entered my lines and then I ran KGEN
I used Doc's approach using KGEN.
"Any horse who is one of the top 3 on any of the Kgen graphs is a contender."
Here the top 3 from each graph
SP Raw > 1 8 9
EP Raw > 7 3 9
SP 1 > 1 8 9
EP 1 > 7 3 9
SP 2 > 1 8 9
EP 2 > 7 9 1
"Any horse in the top 3 out the kgen graphs is a contender"
So in this race
1,3,7,8,9, are in
I will scratch the rest.
Here is the Kinetic Generator
The 3 will cause the 2 adjust alarm with a big advantage in Total Energy
Every horse is Other Then Early.
Now I will run Thromation.
The first stop screen is the EXCD screen F1= #7 The DPH is #3 The EXDC says 1,9,7
The opposite screen is the SP. F1= 7 DPH= 3 SP says 1 8 9
Now Thromation. 1,8,9 The SP screen matches so I have confirmation.
I included the 3 and took out the 9 because of the 3
had so much raw total energy and high APV
I guess I mess up not betting the 8 to win. The 20/1 and off 225 days
made me just take a stab at a $2 exact 8 over 1 3
The 8 did not come up on RDSS So nothing works all the time. This time what Doc wrote and having the tools in RDSS to see clearly really hot workouts
got me past some factors that hardly ever win
Thanks
Bill