This step is one of the most critical when going through our process. My way of "Run Style Analysis" has been a mix of both Jim Cramer and RichieP's intuition as he was taught by The Hat.
The brilliant handicapping mind of Dave Schwartz turned me onto Cramer's run styles. Here is his breakdown in his own words:
Quote:
E=a horse that challenges for the lead at the 1st call. (My (Schwartz's) definition is "within 1 length of the leader.)
EP=a horse that challenges for the lead for the 1st time at the 2nd call.
P=a horse that challenges for the lead for the 1st time at the stretch call.
S=a horse that challenges for the lead for the 1st time in the last furlong.
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RichieP, in his introductory "Mind's Eye" thread (
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3717) initially recommends 10-15 seconds, then amends to 3-5 seconds with the first instinct that comes through your head when looking at the PPs (Hat's way).
The Hat also presents guidelines for RS analysis in multiple areas of this forum.
The challenge that I have in analyzing for Run Style in PPs comes with those horses that have shown multiple run styles over the course of the 10 races (12 if you use DRF Classic PPs online, or unlimited if you use TimeformUS) presented to us.
Here was a horse I examined the other night while looking at the PP's at Evangeline Downs:
My "call" here was "Sustained Presser" as it shows a "Sustained" ability in L2, L8 and L9 and a "Press" ability in L1, L5 and L6. It shows an "Early" runner-up in the slop in L4, but it is the only "Early" style in its 10 races.
In this particular race, he broke 8th, 8th at the 1st call, 9th at 2nd call, 8th at Stretch call and 9th at the Finish. Lone comment was that the horse "was never close" at any point.
With the mix of run styles as they are, how does one truly make a "call"?
This is an area of struggle that I feel holds me back some. We all can identify the true Early horses and the true Sustained horses... its the homogenous horses that get tricky.