[Kisha]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Hello Kisha,

What did I miss? Nothing was missed. Should overlays be played even if they are not on your contender list? Basically no, one would have to have a very good reason to play a horse deemed a non contender.

Every race is not gettable and we all lose races, a reason why good money management is so important, if you lose a race do a post mortem and if nothing is found than move on. No matter what program or procedure is used no one gets them all.

"looked at EPR, LPR (which I guess are the new EP and SP) and FW."
EPR and LPR are not the same as SP,FW etc. EPR and EP are essentially the same thing. LPR is nothing but 3rd Fraction. EPR, SP and FW are compounded Fractions which have proven more worthy that any single Fr. See the Glossary for their definitions and make up.

The horse that won this, #3 was off 103 days and not too many would play it for that reason, which is why it paid over $80 to win. I do play these types and have posted many results of such. I can't honestly say after the fact that I would have had this one as I did not handicap this race. In a NW2L and as a 3 yr. old it had an advantage over the 2,6 & 9 which were older.

Sartin recommendation for contenders was to use the top 5 Total Energy or TPR etc. He equated those and pace to supersede manmade class levels. Since that time he greatly improved and developed better compounded Factors such as BLBL and V/DC which far out perform TPR and Total Energy. He was constantly evolving. If alive today I'm sure he would have evolved away from this early teachings. One must be very careful about reading early Follow Up's.

In the early 1990's we were using the Speed Rating plus Variant to get contenders. The real problem with using any pace factors for contenders is that's its pace line selection dependent. Make a mistake on selecting a pace line and all your readouts (Factors) are skewed along with contenders. I don't recommend this especially for beginners. I consider myself very good at picking pace lines but do not use it for contenders etc.

Within the RDSS program there are other things that will better serve a newbie for getting true contenders such as CR , CR+ and the Morning Line odds from the track handicapper. At major tracks they do a very good job. The problem with the ML is too many fingers in the pie which results in an inconsistent procedure, particularity if you play multiple tracks. A player should use something that will have the winner in the top five at least 85% of the time.

What do I use? I use Bris Prime Power for my contenders. If a member of TwinSpires you can essentially get these for free, (normal cost is $3) they are free with any size bet made from your TwinSpires account. I don't use the Prime Power numbers within the RDSS program because they have proven to be inconsistent with the actual Bris Prime Power numbers, thus effecting contenders, Gaps etc. which have an effect on win %, Ex's and all types of bets made. How inaccurate are they ? Well their better than nothing and it would take a very exhausted study to determine rate. Bottom line is I don't believe in giving up any winning percentage going into a race. Knock Offs are just that, you get what you pay for.

BTW see my thread for Beginners.

Mitch44

Thank you Mitch for the explanation. This weekend I'll use VDC, CR, CR+, ML and Brisnet's Prime Power to select contenders. I'll put a pause on going through the early Follow Ups, and I'll search your Beginner's thread for help. I may have another update early next week and maybe more questions

Kisha